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By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
December 23, 2024
T'was the week before Christmas, when predictions did sprout
Experts were hedging on how 2025 will turn out.
Business plans were made by the industry with care,
Hoping sales, purchases, and refis all increase in share.
Loan officers and agents were snug in their beds,
While visions of rates and inventory danced in their heads.
Buyers paced the sidelines, homeowners stayed put,
For better market conditions to be finally afoot.
When out on the wires, there arose such a clatter,
We wondered at this point if predictions really matter.
To what will our wandering eyes appear…
Post NAR settlement and mortgage rates in high gear?
Those who help people reach the American Dream
Can make '25 better than at first it might seem.
Spring to your screens, to your teams give a whistle,
Don't let the forecasts cause you to bristle.
Rally 'round your mission and leverage your tech
Focus on customer journey, keep the noise in check.
Let's all exclaim, as 2024 falls out of sight -
“Happy '25 to all, keep up the good fight!”
CHATTER
FED FUN: MBA on 25 BPS Cut
“Expectations that the Fed will cut rates less than had been anticipated have been priced into the market in the form of higher 10-year Treasury and higher mortgage rates in recent weeks. MBA’s forecast for mortgage rates moved up after the election, anticipating this change and recognizing the market’s reaction to the likely path for fiscal policy and the deficit. MBA is forecasting that mortgage rates will average close to 6.5% over the next few years, with significant volatility around that average.” - MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni
NMN Explores Whether FHA's "Life of Loan MI" is On the Way Out
FLAGSTAR FINED: SEC Says 1.5M Individuals Were Affected by Breach
The Securities and Exchange Commission filed settled charges against Flagstar Financial, Inc. for making materially misleading statements regarding a cybersecurity attack on Flagstar's network in late 2021 (the "Citrix Breach"). Without admitting or denying the findings in the SEC's order, Flagstar agreed to cease and desist from committing or causing any violations of these provisions and to pay a $3.55 million civil money penalty.
CITIGROUP HIRED GEEKS TO GROW: Mortgage.com is going after Zillow, Nerdwallet, et al
HousingWire reports that Citi deployed a team of about 50 people to revamp mortgage.com, made up of SEO experts, content strategists, copywriters, and technical architects. They identified an opportunity to take market share from competitors by producing high-quality content.
RE/MAX IS CALLING IT “MEDIA” NOW: They Started a Division to Charge for Access to Clients
RE/MAX Holdings has launched the RE/MAX Media Network, a “commerce media network.” The initiative, supported by Kontrol Media, will leverage RE/MAX's digital ecosystem to connect advertisers with consumers during their homebuying journey.
BROTHERS BUYING TWINS? United Wholesale Mortgage President and CEO Mat Ishbia seems to be on a mission to help families afford an outing to a major league baseball game with a bid to buy the Minnesota Twins. We'll see if the Phoenix Suns co-owner and brother Justin take their game plan north in the coming year.
GIDDY UP: MBA Commends Senate on Trigger Lead Bill
“MBA applauds the Senate for passing legislation we championed to stop the abusive use of mortgage trigger leads while preserving their use in appropriately limited circumstances during a real estate transaction. Consumers remain vulnerable to trigger leads abuses heading into the spring homebuying season. Absent a House vote this week, MBA plans to work aggressively with industry stakeholders and members of the 119th Congress to advance this needed change to trigger leads policy as soon as possible.” - MBA’s President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, CMB
MOVING & SHAKING
Mr. Cooper Group added former Fannie exec Andrew Bon Salle to it's board of directors.
Planet Home Lending named Candice McNaught SVP of Business Development and Strategic Initiatives.
Ternus Lending welcomed Robert Greenberg as VP of Strategy, in hopes he'll drive tech adoption and enhance customer experience.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
FANNIE'S 5: Fannie Mae's Economists Share Their Predictions for 2025
Average mortgage rates will decline modestly but remain above 6%, with likely bouts of volatility.
Existing homes sales will remain near 30-year lows, but location matters.
New home sales will remain a bright spot in the housing market (where they can be built).
National home price growth will decelerate.
Multifamily housing will remain in a holding pattern.
Fannie Mae SVP and Chief Economist Mark Palim recommends that would-be buyers and refinancers watch the market rollercoaster in 2025, saying, "…heightened mortgage rate volatility may present opportunities for would-be homebuyers to take advantage of temporary lows, and we may see stretches where housing activity is boosted by lower rates — but, on average, we expect mortgage rates to remain elevated and a hindrance to activity."
HOLIDAY SNEER: Heading into the Holidays, Mortgage Rates Increase Freddie 12-19-24
This week, mortgage rates crept up to a similar average as this time in 2023. For the most part, mortgage rates have moved between 6 and 7% over the last 12 months. Homebuyers are slowly digesting these higher rates and are gradually willing to move forward with buying a home, resulting in additional purchase activity.
APPS DROP: Mortgage Applications Decreased 0.7% From One Week Earlier: MBA Survey for Week Ending 12-13-24.
WHAT A WEEK: In his latest Master the Markets segment, Bill Bodnar finds optimism in employment and inflation data.
UP FROM NOT MUCH: NAR November Existing Home Sales
Sales accelerated 6.1% from one year ago, the largest year-over-year gain since June 2021 (+23.0%).
The median existing-home sales price rose 4.7% from November 2023 to $406,100, the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.
"Home sales momentum is building. More buyers have entered the market as the economy continues to add jobs, housing inventory grows compared to a year ago, and consumers get used to a new normal of mortgage rates between 6% and 7%." - NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun
TOUGH TIMES: ATTOM Data Released Q424 U.S. Home (Un)Affordability Report
Median-priced single-family homes and condos remain less affordable in the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to historical averages in 98 percent of counties analyzed.
The report also shows that major expenses on median-priced homes currently consume 34 percent of the average national wage. That level marks an increase of more than one percentage point both quarterly and annually, pushing the figure even farther above the common 28 percent lending guideline preferred by lenders.
“The U.S. housing market continues to generate great profits for most home sellers but also more and more financial stress for would-be buyers. Average workers now must shell out a larger portion of their wages for major home-ownership expenses than at any time since right before the housing market tanked in the late 2000s. [ ]…at some point, something’s got to give, or a growing number of buyers will have no choice but to toss in the towel and wait for home ownership to become more affordable. But we clearly are not there yet.” - Rob Barber, ATTOM CEO
AZ FOLLOWING AL: NAR Sends Cease & Desist to Phoenix Realtors
Alabama recently sent a letter asking to be released from the requirement for state associations/agents to be members of the National Association of Realtors. Now, HousingWire is reporting that Phoenix Realtors just stared letting agents join without becoming members of the national trade group and NAR’s not having it.