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- Closing Out Q3
Closing Out Q3
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
The Fed rate hike happened, Realtor.com says the best week to buy a home is coming up, and pending sales are hovering around a third below pre-pandemic norms. Midterm elections are coming up, the Iran conflict continues, and whether AI is good or evil seems to be a contentious gray area. What do you suppose Q4 will bring?
Table of Contents
CHATTER
Conforming Loan Limit Contest
We’ll See Your $845K, Raise You 5: Pennymac offers $850K conforming loan limit, UWM splits the difference between Rocket’s salvo and the latest at $847,440.
No-Loan to Homeowner w/VantageScore 4.0: UWM
By using VantageScore 4.0 instead of the traditional FICO scoring model, approximately 25% of borrowers are currently seeing a more advantageous credit result — a difference that can potentially improve pricing, provide better LLPAs, improved mortgage insurance, increase loan eligibility and, in some cases, turn what could have been a “no loan” into homeownership.
By the end of the month, UWM anticipates that number could reach 2 in 5 borrowers.
Cut to the Chase: Chase Tweaks Market with Rate Discounts Through 10-4
Chase is offering up to .25% rate discounts for qualified purchase or refi borrowers ahead of the Fed meeting and in the middle of broader market malaise.
Voice + Text = + 143% - ?
Go Figure: Figure Boasts 143% Conversion Lift with AI
The Figure Agent is powered by Sierra’s Horizon platform and was trained by Figure to work natively in its Loan Origination System. The agent reaches out to stalled applicants via voice and SMS, operating autonomously over days. It progresses stagnated applicants and brings them closer to conversion by assisting borrowers through routine friction points such as credit check permissions, ID verification, and bank account linking, and then seamlessly transfers them to an Loan Officer (LO) to finalize the loan.
Early results1 demonstrate significant conversion gains:
· Stalled applicants who interacted with the Figure Agent progressed through individual friction stages at a 30-52% higher rate than those who didn’t.
· Borrowers who engaged with the Figure Agent, whether with or without Loan Officer assistance, funded 67% more loan volume.
· Combining the Figure Agent with Loan Officers yields a 143% lift in funded loan conversion when compared to Loan Officers operating alone.
AmeriTrust Alleges $14.1M Scheme - NMP
AmeriTrust Mortgage Corp. is seeking approximately $14.1 million in a federal lawsuit alleging that investors, a mortgage broker, appraisers, title companies, and related entities participated in a fraud scheme involving more than 90 Baltimore-area investment-property loans.
MOVING & SHAKING
Matt Jones has been nominated to serve as FHA Commissioner and Deputy Secretary of HUD.
Gateway First Bank announced the acquisition of Texas-based Colonial Savings.
Lenders One added two SVPs - Stephen Boney and Joe Camerieri.
Austin Reed joined OriginPoint as Producing Regional Manager.
Guaranteed Rate Affinity welcomed Josh Rakiey as VP of Mortgage Lending.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
It was unanimous…
They hiked rates, bond market improves: Bill Bodnar explains that and why we should be glad we're not Japan in his latest Master the Markets segment.
Mortgage Applications Decreased 4.1% from One Week Earlier: MBA Survey for the week ending 9-11-26. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.
Five Months of Decline: MBA’s Builder Application Survey 8-26
· The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for August 2026 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 5.5 percent from a year ago. Compared to July 2026, applications decreased by 6 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.
· “Increasing mortgage rates continue to put pressure on new home sales activity. Applications to purchase newly constructed homes declined in August for the fifth straight month, with the level of applications down to its lowest in 2026,” said Joel Kan, CMB, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.
Pining for Pre-pandemic: Pending Home Sales 1/3 Below Years Leading to Covid - NAR August PHS
Month-Over-Month:
0.3% increase in pending home sales, gains in the South and West; declines in the Northeast and Midwest
Year-Over-Year:
4.7% decrease in pending home sales, declines in all four regions
“Nationally, contract signings today are running roughly 30% below where they were in the years leading up to the pandemic. Transaction activity peaked in 2021 when mortgage rates fell to near 3%, a historic low, and has not approached that level since.” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun
Pull the Trigger 9-27-10-3: Realtor.com’s 2026 Best Time to Buy Report
Home shoppers will get the most favorable balance of inventory, lower listing prices, reduced competition and a more manageable market pace.
· Plentiful listings: The Best Week is expected to have 13.3% more active listings than the average week and 31.9% more than at the start of the year, creating more opportunities to find the right fit.
· Less competition: Buyer demand is historically 30.1% lower than its annual peak and 14.4% lower than the average week, giving shoppers more breathing room.
· A more manageable pace: Based on seasonal trends and a cooling market, homes are expected to spend roughly 64 days on market during the Best Week—about 13 days longer than the year's peak pace.
· Lower post-peak prices: Listing prices typically fall 3.5% from their seasonal high by the Best Week. This year, that seasonal shift could mean roughly $14,000 in savings compared with the summer peak on a median-priced home of about $416,000.
· More negotiating room: Historically, 5.7% of homes see price reductions during the Best Week, one of the strongest weeks of the year for seller price drops.
· Fresh options: The Best Week historically brings 20.0% more new listings than the start of the year, an important consideration for buyers with specific needs.
August Non-Starter: HUD/US Census August Residential Construction
Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,394,000. This is 2.7% below the revised July rate of 1,433,000, but is 3.5% above the August 2025 rate of 1,347,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 878,000; this is 1.8% below the revised July figure of 894,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in August.
Housing Starts
Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000. This is 2.6% (±12.0 %)* below the revised July estimate of 1,309,000 and is 1.2% (±10.8%)* below the August 2025 rate of 1,291,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 918,000; this is 7.6% (±14.0%)* above the revised July figure of 853,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 344,000.
Housing Completions
Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,128,000. This is 11.9% (±9.7%) below the revised July estimate of 1,280,000 and is 27.1% (±8.9%) below the August 2025 rate of 1,548,000. Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 816,000; this is 10.4% (±9.3%) below the revised July rate of 911,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 302,000.
Going back for seconds?
Newrez Survey Finds Credit Card Debt Mounting for Homeowners
· More than half (51%) of U.S. homeowners carry credit card debt month-to-month.
· 51% of homeowners with credit card debt lose sleep over finances, but nearly 9 in 10 mortgage borrowers with credit card debt remain confident they can keep up with their mortgage payments.
· Most see home equity and personal loans as effective ways to consolidate and pay down debt, and leveraging these financial tools could result in interest and payment savings for homeowners.
· Financial pressure is impacting homeowners who carry credit card debt, according to the Newrez survey. Nearly 6 in 10 (59%) say their credit card debt has a negative impact on their financial situation, and 84% say they would feel significant relief if it were paid off. Many also report broader financial strain, with more than half (51%) losing sleep over finances, more than two-thirds (67%) feeling overwhelmed by their finances at least sometimes, and less than half (48%) feeling in control of their finances most or all of the time.
· Despite the financial pressure of credit card debt, homeowners remain resilient and continue to prioritize homeownership. Three-quarters view their credit card debt as manageable, and 84% say paying it off is a high priority. Among homeowners surveyed with both a mortgage and credit card debt, nearly 9 in 10 (89%) are confident they can keep up with their mortgage payments, and a similar share (90%) prioritize their mortgage payment over most other bills.
Rent Prices Increase: Up 1.8% in July Cotality
While single-family rent growth continued to strengthen in July, the growth varied considerably across price tiers. High-priced single-family rentals posted a 2.6% annual increase, while low-priced rentals rose just 0.6%, widening the gap between the two segments.
“The recent divergence should be viewed in a longer-term context. Over the past five years, rents for the low-price tier increased 26%, slightly more than the 24% gain for high-priced rentals. That suggests recent strength at the upper end may be less of a fundamental shift in demand and more of a catch-up period, as cumulative rent growth remains higher in the low-price tier despite the recent slowdown,” said Molly Boesel, senior principal economist at Cotality.