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Cold & Damp
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
The upper Midwest - where the majority of the InGeniusly Speaking team is based - has had a rainy run the last couple of weeks. This morning, it was 50 degrees, with a “feels like” of 40. On June 9th. This slow start to summer kind of reminds us of the market right now. So, let’s dig for some highlights:
MBA says purchase apps were up 18% and refi apps were up 42% YoY last week. ICE says homeowners with mortgages have a record $17.6T in home equity entering Q225, with $11.5T considered “tappable.” BofA released a report that found the number of prospective home buyers waiting for rates and home prices to fall increased from last year, but that same group thinks conditions are better to buy this year than last.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed for a festive summer home sales solstice.
CHATTER
Pick Your Publication: Trades Say Fed Won’t Cut
NMP, HW, NMN all say slightly stronger than expected jobs numbers and lingering inflation concerns won’t lead to a rate cut any time soon.
"These data lined up well with market expectations and are likely to keep the Fed on hold for the next meeting or two." - Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association
Lumber Fighting with Builders: USLC Calls Out NAHB
The U.S. Lumber Coalition took issue with NAHB’s CEO Jim Tobin comments in a Fox interview. Key gripes:
The U.S. Government has determined Canada engages in harmful unfair trade practices in softwood lumber.
Yet NAHB continues to advocate for the importation of injurious unfairly traded Canadian lumber imports.
Enforcing the U.S. trade laws helps increase the U.S. supply of lumber to build American homes.
Change Co. Prevails (NMN): NY Judge Awarded $94M in Damages
The Change Company won a judgment against a company led by a former employee, who had also previously sued them.
Change Co. filed suit against a company owned by its former chief of staff Adam Levine – Yeti Global Services. Change accused Levine of stealing and delivering documents for Yeti that facilitated a multi-million dollar extortion scheme against them.
Dems Demand Answers from FTC: 5 U.S. Senators Want to Know Why Rocket/Redfin Merger Not Blocked
Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Maizie Hirono, and do-nothing Tina Smith are huffed up. Here’s an excerpt from the literary gem they sent: “We ask that you explain why your agencies declined to challenge the Rocket-Redfin merger, and urge you to closely scrutinize Rocket’s acquisition spree as a whole for anticompetitive harms to small businesses and consumers in the housing market.”
NAR Repeals “No-Comingling Policy”
The executive committee voted to repeal the optional non-commingling rule from the MLS Policy Handbook. The rule, often referred to as "no commingling," allowed MLSs to require that listings from non-MLS sources be displayed separately from MLS listings. The rule was always optional, and now it's no longer part of NAR policy.
According to NAR Senior Counsel Charlie Lee, the decision was based feedback from the MLS community about the rule's declining usage and relevance in local marketplaces.
Zillow has been pushing for this: “Home shoppers have made their expectation clear: they want a seamless, transparent experience that shows all available homes in one place,” Matt Hendricks, Zillow’s vice president of industry affairs, wrote in an email.
Homeowners $400K, Renters $10K: Aspen Institute Report on Wealth Gap
Home equity is the largest source of wealth for most Americans, but the path to homeownership is becoming narrow and more difficult to navigate.
Currently, renters possess less than 3 percent of the wealth of homeowners, with a median net worth of $10,400 compared to $400,000 for homeowners.
New Credit Info Integration: Blue Sage Solutions Integrates with Freddie Mac
This initiative aims to expand homeownership opportunities for long-term renters by recognizing their consistent rent payments as a favorable factor in mortgage evaluations.
Freddie Mac's Loan Product Advisor® (LPA) recently incorporated positive rental payment history into its credit assessment for conventional loans. The enhancement allows lenders to consider a borrower's on-time rent payments when determining eligibility for home financing. Blue Sage Solutions now allows originators the option to indicate a borrower's positive rental history in the Blue Sage Digital Lending Platform.
MOVING & SHAKING
ServiceLink hired Liz Green as SVP.
Dominion Financial Wholesale announced the appointment of William Fisher as Director of Wholesale Sales.
NMP reports First Colony Mortgage hired David Warren as Sr. Account Executive for its FCM TPO division.
NMP reports that Carrington Mortgage added two new AE teams to boost its Non-QM production: David Kirchen who works nationwide and Shawn Janda, based in Arizona.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Wild Week: In his latest Master the Markets segment, Bill Bodnar explains last week's mixed readings on the labor market, how private payroll creations missed by a mile, and initial jobless claims had the highest rating in 4 years. Next week, CPI comes out, Treasury will sell a ton of debt and we'll be watching how bonds respond.
Mortgage Rates Move Down: Freddie 6-5-25
The average mortgage rate decreased this week, which is welcome news to potential homebuyers who also are seeing inventory improve and house price growth slow.
Mortgage applications decreased 3.9% from one week earlier:MBAWeekly Survey for the week ending 5-30-25.
Below Pre-Pandemic Levels: ATTOM Data’s Q125 Residential Property Mtg Origination Report
1.4M residential mortgages were issued in Q125, down 14% from Q424
Purchase loans dropped 20% QoQ, making up 41.4% of the market
Refinances declined 12%, but grew in market share to 40.5%
HELOCs dipped 5%, but were up YoY
Total dollar value of loans fell 18%, from $582B in Q424 to $478B in Q125 – containing declines in both number of borrowers and loan size
The proportion of mortgage refinancing and home equity line of credit deals, which tend to be smaller, have grown to 40.5% and 18.2% of the market, respectively.
“The red-hot housing market we’ve seen over the last few years meant that most home loans were going toward new purchases, but that appears to be changing. Rather than borrowing money to buy a new property, the data shows homeowners are increasingly looking to restructure their existing mortgages or borrow equity from their homes to cover other expenses.” Rob Barber, ATTOM CEO
Trillions are Tappable: ICE Mortgage Monitor 6-25
U.S. mortgage holders carried a record $17.6 trillion in home equity entering Q225, with $11.5 trillion considered “tappable.”
Q1 second lien equity withdrawals rose 22% YoY to nearly $25B — the largest Q1 volume in 17 years — suggesting increased interest in home equity access amid improving loan affordability.
The average introductory rate on second lien HELOCs has declined by 2.5 percentage points in recent quarters, dropping below 7.5% in March. If current market forecasts hold, HELOC rates could dip into the mid-6% range by 2026 — roughly on par with projected 30-year mortgage rates.
48 million mortgage holders have tappable equity, with the average homeowner sitting on $212K.
Mortgaged homes are, on average, only 45% leveraged, suggesting ample cushion for equity access.
Lenders are becoming more aggressive with their HELOC rate offerings, with the spread to prime falling to the lowest levels since 2022.
Equity withdrawals — including cash-out refinances — totaled $45 billion in the first quarter of 2025, the highest first quarter volume since 2022.
Borrowers tapped just 0.41% of available tappable equity in the first quarter of 2025, still below long-term averages, indicating further room for growth.