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- Death of the Dot Plot
Death of the Dot Plot
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
Scan the trades and you’ll find varying opinions on the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with one HousingWire analyst flat admitting he’s not a fan. We excerpted Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni’s commentary on last week’s meeting below, but a more interesting take on what’s expected to be a new Fed era comes from business writer John Carney, who says a reset is needed due to “[ ]…all these crisis-era programs outlasted the [2008] crisis itself. Instead of being retired, they became part of the basic machinery of the Fed. The dot plot, calendar guidance, threshold guidance, press-conference hints, and carefully engineered statements turned a crisis workaround into a standing operating procedure.” It’ll be interesting to see if the Dot Plot and cryptic, prolific chatter fade away under the new regime.
Table of Contents
CHATTER
MBA’s Fratantoni on the Fed:
“The FOMC kept its target rate unchanged, but the economic projections released today have shifted markedly relative to the projections in March, with the median member’s projection showing much higher inflation in 2026 and somewhat higher inflation in 2027. Not surprisingly, with elevated concerns about inflation and little sign of deterioration in the job market, the median member now projects an unchanged fed funds rate this year, but still expects some cuts over the next two years.
"The vote to keep the rate target and balance sheet policy unchanged was unanimous. It will be very informative over the next few weeks to see whether there is still as wide a divergence of views across the FOMC regarding the appropriate stance of policy at this point.
“The overall tone is more hawkish than many had anticipated, and the immediate market reaction was an increase in rates. MBA’s forecast is for mortgage rates to average about 6.5% over the forecast horizon, given the resilience in the broader economy and job market, the likely stance of monetary policy given persistent inflation, and ongoing fiscal pressures, which will keep upward pressure on longer-term debt."
The Tele-preneur Strikes Again…
Domiciles to Décor: Bed Bath & Beyond to Acquire Fathom, Create New “Housing Ecosystem”
Bed Bath & Beyond is building Everything Home, a strategy centered on three interconnected pillars: Homeownership & Transactions, Omnichannel Commerce and Home Services.
The Company believes homeowners increasingly want a single trusted relationship throughout the lifecycle of the home.
BBB has signed an agreement to acquire Fathom Holdings Inc. a national, technology-driven real estate services platform integrating residential brokerage, mortgage, title, insurance and SaaS offerings.
Fathom’s integrated platform and technology capabilities complement Bed Bath & Beyond’s Everything Home strategy and accelerate the Company’s vision to create the nation’s first end-to-end homeownership platform.
All the Homes Fit to Print: Wells Fargo is Preferred Lender for ICON 3D-Printed Homes
WF has been named a preferred home mortgage lender for ICON, the global leader in advanced construction technologies. The collaboration expands access to financing for buyers of ICON homes and supports broader adoption of innovative construction methods designed to address housing supply and affordability challenges.
Through the relationship, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage will offer a 50-bps lender credit to qualified buyers who finance the purchase of an ICON home through them.
Agentic AI is Key to Lowering Origination Costs: NMN
Google Going Around Zillow?
Disrupting Again: Google
Following a limited pilot, we’re now rolling out richer Local Services Ads for Home Listings across all 50 U.S. states. As buyers look for homes, this expanded format surfaces relevant property details — such as pricing, images and core home features — powered by a partnership with HouseCanary’s rich data platform. Buyers can then call, message or book an appointment with a local agent right from the ad.
“Stop Prompting, Start Delegating”
Anthropic Exec to NY Banking Summit (NMN)
From the article:
Key insight: McNamara broke down three types of agentic deployment she sees in the financial industry — internal productivity, faster workflows and net-new products — and argued the real ROI gap lies in the second and third areas.
Expert quote: "The biggest mantra I want you to take back: stop prompting, start delegating," Anthropic Head of Banking Katie McNamara said, adding that the shift in mindset is what separates banks that are merely experimenting from those actually accelerating.
Forward look: McNamara cautioned against centralizing AI development in a single innovation team, instead urging banks to decentralize experimentation to the employees closest to the work while keeping governance, safety and security controlled.
MOVING & SHAKING
Sagent appointed Kenneth Posner CFO.
Real enlisted JPAR founder JP Piccinini as a Growth Leader.
Arch Capital announced the promotions of Jerome Halgan to CEO of Arch Global Reinsurance Group and Michael Schmeiser to CEO of Arch Global Mortgage Group.
Ardley launched new platform allowing servicers to have a centralized hub to engage borrowers and drive new loan applications. They can now tie pricing and adjustments to unique borrower journeys, and run customized borrower outreach.
Former ICE, CoreLogic leader Dave Hurt joins Home Value Lock to expand partnerships - NMP
August Closing: Two Harbors Says Deal Will Get Done with CCM - NMP
Two Harbors Investment Corp. used its latest dividend announcement to reaffirm expectations that its pending sale to CrossCountry Mortgage remains on track for an August closing.
Robo LO: Ralo Launches AI Mortgage Broker w/$2.9M Seed Money
From the release: The Backers: Y Combinator, Manresa Ventures, Pack Ventures and angels including Charles Ferguson (Oscar-winning director of Inside Job) and Ryan Frazier (Co-founder & CEO of Arrived).
Ralo will use the funds to expand its product offering and launch in additional markets this year.
Here’s the pitch: Outdated, labor-intensive mortgage processes cost lenders nearly $11,800 per loan, with borrowers ultimately footing the bill through higher rates and fees. In addition, most consumers also don't know that shopping and negotiating for rates can save them tens of thousands of dollars. The end result is that most borrowers leave tens of thousands of dollars on the table.
Ralo leverages AI to automate the entire process with a consumer-first approach. It shops for the best deals across a number of different lenders, and by cutting out all of the intermediaries who take hefty commissions (including loan officers, loan processors, and underwriters), Ralo is able to secure rates that are more than half a point better than the national average, saving customers tens of thousands of dollars. Most lenders take on average 30-45 days to close a mortgage, Ralo can do it on average in 15 days - 3x faster.
Helping Hand: Copperlane Launches LO Assistant w/$4.1M in Seed Money
From the release: “We started Copperlane to fix a problem very close to home: getting a mortgage is far harder than it needs to be, for lenders and borrowers alike. We're building the first AI-native mortgage origination platform, and at the center of it is Penny, an AI mortgage loan officer assistant who reads thousands of documents in minutes to provide banks with distilled recommendations.”
NOTE: Y Combinator (YC) invested in both companies mentioned above.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Mortgage Rates Decline: Freddie 6-18-26
Mortgage applications decreased 3.8% from one week earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 6-12-26.
Builders Application Survey - BAS: May new home mortgage applications increased 3.8% YoY, decreased 3% MoM.
Market Movement: NAR PHS 5-26
Month-Over-Month
3.8% increase in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West
Year-Over-Year
4.8% increase in pending home sales
Gains in the Northeast, Midwest, South and West
“A late spring buyer rush—even with mortgage rates not budging—is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers’ acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal.”
“Going forward, falling oil prices will help lower mortgage rates,” Yun said. “But declines will be modest given sizable borrowing by the federal government and strong AI investment spending by tech companies.” - NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun.
Rates are lower, is insurance to blame?
Accelerating Expenses: Housing Payments Reach 1-Yr. High Redfin
The median U.S. monthly housing payment hit $2,647 during the four weeks ending June 14, its highest level in a year and just about $100 shy of 2023’s all-time high.
Notable – or not?
Ladies Leading: Single Women 11.4% of Home Purchases in 2025
"Where women are buying on their own varies dramatically by market, and affordability appears to be one of the strongest drivers.”
"For generations, homeownership often followed marriage, but that timeline is changing. Nearly 360,000 single women purchased homes nationwide in 2025, and in many markets, they are increasingly choosing not to delay buying while waiting for a partner. In the top metros, they account for nearly one in six buyers, compared to a much smaller share nationally, underscoring how sharply outcomes differ based on local housing costs." - Tim Lucas, lead analyst and report author at Mortgage Research Network.
Grading the States: Realtor.com’s 2026 Home Building & Affordability Report
The heat map is worth a peek…
Flippers Faring Better: ATTOM Data’s Q126 US Home Flipping Report
ATTOM’s Q1 2026 U.S. Home Flipping Report shows home-flipping returns rose to 25.4%, ending a seven-quarter decline, while overall flipping activity declined from both QoQ and YoY. Profitability varied widely across markets, with some metros posting strong margins and others seeing only modest gains.
Profit margins and gross profits increased quarter over quarter but remained below year-ago levels.
The typical time to complete a flip increased to 165 days.
All-cash purchases made up 61.1% of flipped homes.