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- Fire in the hole!
Fire in the hole!
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
WHO
Table of Contents
CHATTER
Hints, but no commitment…
Fed Chair Jerome Powell Spoke in WY, and cited risks that inflation will continue rising and that the labor market will keep weakening. He called that combination unusual and suggested it could prompt the Fed to support economic growth by reducing rates.
More mortgage fraud?
Fed Governor Lisa Cook is the latest high-ranking public figure to be accused of mortgage fraud after FHFA Director Bill Pulte sent a criminal referral on Cook to DOJ 8-15. President Trump said on Friday that he would "fire [Cook] if she doesn't resign." Cook joins a growing, distinguished list of alleged fraudsters that includes NY Attorney General Leticia James and CA Senator Adam Schiff.
In the money?
IMBs Report Profit in Q225: Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) newly released Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Performance Report.
Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported a pre-tax net production profit of $950 on each loan they originated in the second quarter of 2025, compared to a net loss of $28 per loan in Q125.
“IMB net production income reached its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2021,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis.
Added Walsh, “Servicing net financial income improved slightly, as impairments on mortgage servicing rights were minimal. Combining production and servicing operations, 80 percent of mortgage companies in the sample posted overall profits – the highest percentage since the third quarter of 2021.”
The average pre-tax production profit was 25 basis points (bps) in the second quarter of 2025, compared to a loss of 7 bps in the first quarter of 2025. The average quarterly pre-tax production profit, from the first quarter of 2008 to the most recent quarter, is 40 basis points.
The average production volume was $636 million per company in the second quarter, up from $488 million per company in the first quarter. The volume by count per company averaged 1,862 loans in the second quarter, up from 1,448 loans in the first quarter.
Total production revenue (fee income, net secondary marketing income, and warehouse spread) decreased to 346 bps in the second quarter, down from 373 bps in the first quarter. On a per-loan basis, production revenues increased to $12,551 per loan in the first quarter, up from $11,190 per loan in the fourth quarter.
Total loan production expenses – commissions, compensation, occupancy, equipment, and other production expenses and corporate allocations – decreased to 321 basis points in the second quarter of 2025 from 381 basis points in the first quarter of 2025. Per-loan costs decreased to $10,965 per loan in the second quarter, down from $12,579 per loan in the first quarter of 2025. From the first quarter of 2008 to last quarter, loan production expenses have averaged $7,750 per loan.
NAR Sued for Steering in FL
HousingWire's subhead reads, "A Florida broker claims that NAR and local associations force the use of buyer’s agents by making it hard for clients to directly contact listing agents." Several Realtors' associations are also named in the complaint.
Suing for MORE enforcement? The National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) sued the Trump administration over "continued threats to Section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank Act" that requires banks to collect demographic information on small business loans for women-owned, minority-owned and small businesses. This rule would bring more access to credit, financial products for small businesses and transparency to lending data. NCRC says they can no longer assume the CFPB is working on implementation of the rule.
Leadership Shuffle, Revisiting the Past?
HW reports that loanDeopt is seeking partnerships with mortgage brokers 3 years after "formally exiting the channel.
NMN Report on Wider Mortgage Fruad: Phila Fed Took a Look
Philadelphia Fed researchers issued a 2023 report assessed the number of "fraudulent investors" in the mortgage market, which they defined as those who had more than one owner-occupied home purchase loan within four quarters after the first one was originated.
The paper's data set consists of 584,499 loans made from 2005 to 2017. Of those, 22,431 were considered fraudulent. The share of those claiming occupancy for better mortgage terms peaked ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, though remained steady for much of the ensuing decade at about 2% to 3%.
Stellar MLS partnered with Rayse and included it in their subscriptions, moving it from a discounted add-on to a fully included tool. Rayse allows buyers and sellers to track their transactions as they move through the process and shows clients how much time agents spend on various tasks.
MOVING & SHAKING
RE/MAX Holdings and Motto Mortgage announced Vic Lombardo has joined the Company as President of Mortgage Services. Lombardo will oversee growth and operations for the Company's mortgage services, including Motto Mortgage and wemlo, the first third-party mortgage processing solution with an all-in-one digital platform.
First Horizon announced the election of Michael Moehn to the First Horizon Corporation Board of Directors and First Horizon Bank Board of Directors.
Sagent appointed Former Wells Fargo & Homepoint Execs To Grow Dara Platform Partnerships & Market Share: The company appointted Art Calhoun as Vice President of Strategic Partnerships and Kim Warnica as Vice President of Product Marketing.
WFG Title appointed Lisa Tyler SVP of National Development (NMP).
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Last week ended well for the housing industry: Fed Chair Powell spoke in Jackson Hole and didn't say transitory. In his latest Master the Markets segment, Bill Bodnar explains a shift in the Fed's attitude and what to watch for this week.
Mortgage Applications Decreased 1.4% From One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 8-15-25.
The Market Composite Index decreased 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2% compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index decreased 3% from the previous week and was 23% higher than the same week one year ago.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2% compared with the previous week and was 23% higher than the same week one year ago.
MBA Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for July 2025 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 6.8% compared from a year ago. Compared to June 2025, applications increased by 7%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.
“Purchase activity for new homes strengthened in July as both mortgage applications and estimated new home sales reached their highest levels since April 2025,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.
Starts & Completions Up - Permits Down: Latest HUD/Census Bureau Release
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent (±14.7 percent)* above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent (±13.6 percent)* above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 939,000; this is 2.8 percent (±11.8 percent)* above the revised June figure of 913,000.
Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,415,000. This is 6.0 percent (±13.5 percent)* above the revised June estimate of 1,335,000, but is 13.5 percent (±10.8 percent) below the July 2024 rate of 1,635,000. Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1,022,000; this is 11.6 percent (±14.6 percent)* above the revised June rate of 916,000.
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.8% below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and is 5.7% below the July 2024 rate.
NAHB/Wells Fargo Builder Confidence Index
Current sales conditions fell one point to 35, sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 43, and traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 22 but remains at a very low level.
In further signs of a soft housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August down from 38% in July. This share has remained at 37% or 38% for the past three months. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in August, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 66% in August, up from 62% in July and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
First American's Existing Home Sales Outlook
National sales remain weak despite rising inventory, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between active listings and new listings.
Across the top 75 markets, sales are strongly correlated with the flow of new listings.
The outlook for new listings growth—and thus sales—will hinge on the tension between the mortgage rate lock-in effect and life events that bring owners to sell.
More from First AM: July 2025 Existing-Home Sales Outlook Highlights:
For the month of July, First American updated its Existing-Home Sales Outlook Report to show that:
Existing-home sales for July are expected to decrease 0.2% from last month’s pace of sales, and decrease 1.4% compared with the pace of sales a year ago.
The largest contributors to the projected monthly decrease in existing-home sales are slower household formation (-0.2%) and a stronger rate lock-in effect as measured by the lagged* spread between the prevailing market mortgage rate and the average rate for all outstanding mortgages (-0.1%).
Demand High, Vacancy Rate Stays Consistent: ATTOM Data's Q3 2025 Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report
1.39M U.S. homes (1.3%) sit vacant, a rate that has stayed consistent for more than three years despite high housing demand.
Abandoned pre-foreclosure homes (zombie foreclosures) represented 3.38% of all properties in foreclosure – slightly up from last quarter and last year.
The biggest year-over-year increases in zombie rates came from Colorado, Washington, and Iowa, while the largest declines were in Georgia, New Jersey, and Illinois.
Oklahoma, Kansas, and Alabama had the highest overall vacancy rates; New Hampshire, Vermont, and New Jersey had the lowest.
Indiana and Illinois had the largest number of investor-owned vacant properties.
Foreclosure Activity Up: ATTOM Data's July 2025 Foreclosure Activity Report
Foreclosure activity across the U.S. increased 11% from June and 13% from July 2024.
States with the worst foreclosure rates were Nevada, Florida, Maryland, South Carolina, and Illinois.
A total of 24,302 properties entered the foreclosure process in July, marking a 12% increase from June and an 11% rise compared to a year ago.
At the same time, lenders completed foreclosures on 3,866 properties — down 1% from the previous month but up 18% from July 2024.