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G(nar)ly Week
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
January 20, 2025
The Supreme Court declined to get involved in the fight between the Department of Justice and the National Association of Realtors. The dispute centers around the DOJ reneging on a settlement and reopening its investigation. NAR contends that DOJ should have to honor contracts the same way private parties do. HW has an opinion roundup on what may come next.
Girding its loins: NAR is facing challenges to its membership requirement in a growing number of states, so it was apparently time to hire a PR Czar. Jarrod Grasso was named "SVP of Industry Relations" to do what many NAR members assumed it was founded to do: "Deepen engagement with state and local associations, MLS executives and other critical industry partners and ensure that the association remains at the forefront of innovation, collaboration and advocacy within the industry."
Expensive assistant? NAR also sought high-powered help, engaging industry veteran Sherry Chris to act as an independent consultant and special advisor to CEO Nykia Wright. The announcement says Chris will "provide strategic counsel on strengthening relationships, building trust and enhancing collaboration with brokerage leaders." Wright's last job was the CEO of the Chicago Sun Times, so NAR now apparently sees the need for someone with industry experience.
WILDFIRE COVERAGE
BIG BILLION RANGE: CoreLogic Estimates CA Fire Damage at $35-45B
The data provider announced preliminary residential and commercial loss estimates for the Eaton and Palisades Fires in Los Angeles, as the time both fires were less than 50% contained. The company will release final estimates upon final containment.
CA Governor Gavin Newsome issued an order forbidding unsolicited offers on fire-affected properties in specific zip codes for three months to "protect firestorm victims from predatory land speculators making aggressive and unsolicited cash offers."
Andrew Martinez digs into how Californians have underpaid for property insurance compared to the Southeast and Midwest.
John Gittleson and Patrick Clark report on skyrocketing rents due to mass displacement, with some reaching $40K/Month in L.A area.
CHATTER
ROCKET REBRANDS: Rocket Companies unveiled a "new visual identity" that the company says unifies many of its services under the overarching “Rocket” brand. The company acquired Rocket.com, introduced a new logo, and renamed several of its divisions.
TPO TRAIL: Flagstar to Mr. Cooper to A&D
NMP reports that non-QM lender A&D entered an agreement to acquire the third-party origination (TPO) platform that Mr. Cooper Group acquired from Flagstar Bank last year.
WaFd EXITS MORTGAGE LENDING: Washington Federal Bank will retain existing loans on books and HELOCs, but cited risk and regulation as reasons for ceasing single-family lending operations and reducing force by 8%.
HEADLINE WHORES: GREYSTAR Accuses FTC of Grandstanding
The rental industry giant responded to the government's civil suit accusing them of misleading consumers with advertised rents, accusing the commission of opting for “headline-grabbing litigation in the waning days of the current (Biden) administration.”
NIPPING AT NAR: The American Real Estate Association (AREA) holds its 2025 Kickoff Member Reception at New York's Hudson Club 1-22. The startup celebrates its first year and promises a "major announcement" in its quest to become the premier real estate trade org.
MOVING & SHAKING
TRUMP TO TAP PULTE FOR FHFA: Bill Pulte Floated to Head Agency
Pulte is a private equity executive and the grandson of William Pulte, the founder and chairman of U.S. homebuilder PulteGroup.
loanDepot names former Royals pitcher Bart Evans Regional VP for the Southeast.
Planet Home Lendinghired Matt Payan as SVP, Distributed Retail Sales.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
MORTGAGE RATES SURPASS SEVEN PERCENT: Freddie 1-16-25
Mortgage rates ticked up for the fifth consecutive week and crossed 7% for the first time since May of 2024. The underlying strength of the economy is contributing to this increase in rates. But, last week, we had market jubilation over lower inflation according to Bill Bodnar in his latest Master the Markets segment. Bodnar notes that we saw reversals when rates reached these levels in '23 and '24.
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS INCREASED 33.3% FROM ONE WEEK EARLIER: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 1-10-25. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the New Year’s holiday.
The Market Composite Index increased 33.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 52% compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index increased 44% from the previous week and was 22% higher than the same week one year ago.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 27% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 48% compared with the previous week and was 2% lower than the same week one year ago.
OK, IT'S SOMETHING: Builder Confidence Up 1 Point in January
The latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index shows builder confidence for newly built single-family homes was 47. Confidence in current sales conditions rose 3 points and prospective buyer traffic rose 2 points; however, sales expectations in the next six months fell 6 points, in part due to the elevated interest rate environment.
GAP GROWTH: CSS Releases Appraisal Gap Analysis
Corporate Settlement Solutions' analysis mainly focuses on 19 states and the District of Columbia, and highlights the percent of homes that appraised over or under the sale price or appraised at the sale price (within $2,500.00).
57% of appraisals were higher than the sale prices in the second half of 2024, up from 53% in Q3/4 of 2023
The number of homes deemed under-appraised decreased from 12% to 8% In the same YoY period
The number of homes that came in at sale price was 36%, up 2% YoY
NO SURPRISE: MCT Reports 16% Drop in Rate Locks
December’s mortgage activity saw a slight uptick in refinance production. However, this increase was not enough to significantly impact overall production levels. The majority of December’s mortgage activity stemmed from purchase volume, reflecting a consistent trend in the current housing market.
“As we move into 2025, nonfarm payroll and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will continue to be critical data points providing insight into any potential rate cuts. However, the more immediate focus is on the incoming administration policy changes and their effect on the market.” - Andrew Rhodes, Senior Director and Head of Trading at MCT.
FORECLOSURES FALL: ATTOM Data Releases Year-End 2024 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report
Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were down 10% YoY in 2024, 1% from 2022 and 35% from pre-pandemic 2019.
Foreclosure filings in 2024 were also down 89 percent from a peak of nearly 2.9 million in 2010.