- InGeniusly Speaking
- Posts
- Halftime
Halftime
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
As we begin the second half of the year, market news seems to contradict market sentiment. Recent releases from Rocket and LendingTree seem to feed into the negativity some consumers are feeling – stories below. On the industry side, we have to do a little digging for indications we’re doing better than we were this time last year. For example, Redfin says that new listings in late June fell to their lowest level since February, but pending sales are up 4.2% YoY for the same timeframe. First American’s analysis points out that home price growth has been below 1% for nine consecutive months, yet they’ve still reached a new historic peak, while MBA reminds us that purchase apps are pacing ahead of 2025. Are you feeling it?
Table of Contents
CHATTER
Welcome to the skinny post-holiday week..
Last week was new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's first speech and kiss Fed forward guidance goodbye. When it comes to rate action this year, Bill Bodnar disagrees with a pretty big bank on predictions in his latest Master the Markets segment.
June Jobs: BLS Report is Soft
Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+57,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2%) changed
little in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in
professional and business services, social assistance, and health care. Leisure and hospitality lost jobs.
Credit Score Competition: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Do Big Data Dump
The hope is that this will help lenders review and evaluate the new models:
Fannie Mae announced the publication of historical credit score data for FICO® Score 10T and additional VantageScore® 4.0 data to enhance transparency and support industry confidence in the credit score modernization initiative.
The FICO Score 10T dataset covers loans acquired from approximately April 2013 to September 2025, while the expanded VantageScore 4.0 dataset covers loans acquired from approximately April 2023 to September 2025. These datasets are intended to provide market participants with greater visibility and additional insights.
Bed Bath & Beyond’s Bold Move: CEO Releases Position Paper on How Company Intends to Enter Real Estate Arena by Creating Unified CX and Whole Cycle Stickiness
Neighborhood Intelligence, a neighborhood data platform
Beyond Home, a homeowner engagement platform
Beyond Home Services, which connects consumers with home-related services
Beyond Omni, its commerce platform
"The policy world is trying to solve housing from the top down. We have the chance to solve it from the homeowner, the neighborhood, and the home up." – Marcus Lemonis
Another Plan to Free Fannie & Freddie: WI Rep Scott Fitzgerald Introduces Legislation that Includes Release from Conservatorship, Ideas to Boost Housing Affordability
MOVING & SHAKING
CrossCountry Wins: TWO Shareholders Approve Deal 7-2 - NMN
The Mortgage Collaborative launched TMC Healthcare Cooperative to give lender members and preferred partners control over rising healthcare costs.
Finance of America completed acquisition of Onity's reverse mortgage assets.
Clayton Property Group Acquired Mungo Homes: The Berkshire Hathaway company said, "Mungo Homes is a natural fit for our distinguished group of homebuilders."
AI firm Arch named Keith Soura CTO.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Mortgage Rates Decline: Freddie 7-2-26
Mortgage Applications Increased 0.04% from One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 6-26-26.
“Purchase applications remain ahead of 2025’s pace and have exhibited year-over-year growth for almost three months, as prospective homebuyers are finding opportunities in markets with ample inventory and easing home-price growth. ARM loans accounted for less than 8% of applications, the lowest share since January, as the yield curve continues to flatten with relatively higher short-term rates.” - Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist
Weird Combo
Price Growth Low, Yet Still All-time High First American May HPI
Annual house price appreciation remained below 1% for the ninth consecutive month in May.
House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for March 2026 to April 2026 was revised up by +0.3 percentage point, from +0.2% to +0.5 percent.
“National house prices are making history in slow motion. While annual house price growth is essentially flat, prices nonetheless reached a new historical peak this month. Unlike the pandemic-era housing boom, when double-digit appreciation quickly pushed prices higher, today's record reflects the cumulative effect of modest monthly gains rather than rapid price acceleration. Although inventory continues to increase compared with a year ago, the pace of growth nationally has moderated, and supply remains below pre-pandemic norms, limiting both upward and downward pressure on prices." - Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.
Better Balance: Realtor.com June Housing Report
For the first time in more than two years, the typical for-sale home spent no more time on market than it did a year earlier, holding flat at 53 days. This signals that buyers are responding to affordability gains.
New housing data backs up this narrative: Pending sales rose 3.7% year over year for the seventh straight month of growth, even as the share of listings with a price cut shrank by 1.9 percentage points to 18.8%.
"Sellers are reading market conditions and are pricing accordingly from the start rather than listing high and cutting later, and buyers are taking note and making bids," says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "This is a welcome sign that we are in a functioning market."
The what is interesting, the why is a bummer.
Transfer tax policies are the leading culprit in closing costs rising and/or staying high as home prices mitigate. Additionally, some states require full deed tax on refis.
Perpetuating the negativity?
Another Curious Release: LendingTree Says Starter Homes Out of Reach for 62% of Non-Homeowners
Muddying the waters?
Lifelong Plan: Rocket Says Saving for Down Payment Could Take 65 Years
NYC could take 65 years, certain Midwestern areas, 4 years: This is according to a Rocket analysis that estimates the time it would take a typical household to save for a down payment on their first home purchase, assuming they save 5% of their annual income. Median household incomes are based on the 2024 American Community Survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. Estimated down payment amounts are based on Rocket Mortgage data on the median down payments made by its first-time homebuyer clients who purchased homes during the year ending on May 19, 2026.
Interesting: Luxury Home Prices Rising 3x Faster than Non-Luxury - Redfin
Luxury U.S. home prices are up 4.7% year over year, compared to a 1.5% increase in non luxury prices, as homebuying demand from affluent people continues to outpace demand from average Americans.
High-end buyers are more active partly because they’re less sensitive to high mortgage rates and today’s economic uncertainty.
Luxury prices are rising fastest in Tampa and Miami, partly due to an influx of ultra-wealthy people moving into Florida.
Luxury sales are rising fastest in San Francisco, largely due to the AI boom, followed by Nashville, San Diego and several Florida metros.
Buyer Migration: Redfin Says 1 in 5 Looking for Sun and Affordability
Highest rate since they began tracking in 2021
This is from a Redfin analysis of Redfin.com users–both homebuyers and renters–searching outside their home metro area.
We identify potential migrants as users who search for homes outside their current metro area. A Redfin.com user must view at least 20 for-sale or for-rent homes in a destination metro during a one-month period to be counted as looking to relocate there.
Self-promotion, sexy headline…
Bankrate Says 87% of Mortgage Holders are Overpaying
Borrowers paid an estimated $65 billion in excess interest each year across mortgages originated since 2022, which comes out to about $3,343 per household annually. For the typical borrower, that adds up to $78,186 over the life of a 30-year loan, more than the median American household’s total retirement savings.
“The dream of homeownership feels increasingly out of reach for millions of Americans, so it’s worth asking whether the problem is the market or the process. Our research suggests that for most borrowers, competitive rates exist; borrowers just never see them. When lenders compete for a borrower’s business, the savings are meaningful and immediate: $279 a month on average, an amount that puts homeownership out of reach for many borrowers.” - Bankrate CEO Matt Fellowes
The study calls for two market-based policy responses:
1) A requirement that lenders disclose a benchmark rate for similarly qualified borrowers alongside any mortgage offer, and
2) A voluntary certification framework for lenders that compete in transparent multi-lender marketplaces.
Here’s their pitch: The $65 billion Americans who bought mortgages since 2022 overpay each year could have been saved had borrowers used Bankrate’s mortgage auction, where lenders compete in real time on price alone.