- InGeniusly Speaking
- Posts
- If it looks like a duck...
If it looks like a duck...
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
If Fed Chair Jerome Powell had clinched his mouth any tighter during a tour of a construction site with President Trump last week, he would have swallowed his lips. The two men had a tense televised exchange wearing hard hats, in which Powell disputed Trump's assessment that the Fed’s already eye-popping $2.5B building renovation cost had run up to $3.1B. Either way, both those numbers are mighty close to the $3B cost of the brand new, 60-story JP Morgan Chase global headquarters at 270 Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan.
Cheating appears to be bi-partisan: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is the latest politician to be called out for mortgage fraud. Paxton and his now-estranged wife, State Senator Angela Paxton, declared multiple homes as their primary residences when applying for home loans. Republican Paxton joins two high profile Democrats on this growing, dubious list: New York AG Leticia James and California Senator Adam Schiff.
These little trips down Tabloid Lane are sometimes a nice distraction from the fact that the crux of most issues and stories in the market right now center around mortgage rates, which moved infinitesimally down last week after rising from an optimistic drop at the beginning of July. Fannie Mae’s ESR Group revised their forecast again, predicting that rates will end the year .10% lower than their last release and upping their home sales total by 100,000. But for now, we wait.
CHATTER
Originators Have the Advantage Over Servicers: J.D. Power 2025 U.S. Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Study
J.D. Power is comparing trends it sees in mortgage servicer customer satisfaction scores with what's happening on the originator side. This analysis is telling of a business going in two different directions.
The latest originator survey, released in November, found a 3-point year-over-year drop; however, the industry average was still a respectable score of 727.
How servicer satisfaction compares with originator scores: On the servicing side, the average score was 131 points lower than for originators, at 596. Compared with the 2024 survey, the decline was 10 points.
Data innovator InGenius announced the acquisition of SIMPL, a purpose-built talent acquisition and management platform for producing managers and business development leaders in the mortgage industry, as covered by National Mortgage News, HousingWire, and National Mortgage Professional.
Rocket Cuts Cards & Staff - NMN:
Rocket will eliminate its credit card to focus on homeownership platform and confirmed a 2% reduction in force after Redfin acquisition.
Capital Gains: The “Stay Put Penalty” (NAR)
According to a NAR-commissioned study, 34% of homeowners (29M) could already have enough equity in their homes to exceed the $250,000 cap, and over 10% (8M) could have enough to surpass the $500,000 threshold. Those numbers are projected to climb rapidly.
By 2030, more than 56% of homeowners could have equity exceeding the $250,000 exclusion, and by 2035, that could rise to nearly 70%, with over 38% surpassing the $500,000 mark.
Fired employees sue Fannie Mae for Nationality and Age-based Discrimination (NMP)
Plaintiffs allege they were told they'd committed fraud by donating to certain charitable organizations.
The employees are all U.S. citizens of Indian nationality, and all but one of the plaintiffs note in the lawsuit they are over age 40.
Opendoor Offers Hybrid Program (HW): The iBuyer calls the new offering Cash Plus. It provides sellers access to “a significant portion” of their home’s value in as little as 14 days. Sellers can also gain additional money after the home is sold.
Cash Plus is now available to agents enrolled in Opendoor’s Key Connections program, which pairs sellers at the very beginning of the process with an agent who can provide options to homeowners beyond merely accepting the company’s flagship cash offer.
MOVING & SHAKING
NAR Hires Brand Watchdog: The National Association of REALTORS® announced the appointment of Leslie Nettleford-Freeman to a new position on NAR’s legal team: associate general counsel, vice president of legal affairs and brand protection. The role elevates NAR’s commitment to defend the REALTOR® trademark.
Union Home Mortgage added Ravi Patel and Justin Allen to facilitate growth in Cincinnati market.
Movement Mortgage welcomed Jeffrey Rose as Regional Director for CA and NV.
AI mortgage tech startup Tidalwave added ICE veteran John Stephenson to be Head of Sales, and Frank Pastirchak, formerly of nCino and Reggora as AE.
Industry Figure Barry Habib Appointed to Fannie Mae Board of Directors.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Last week was uneventful, but this week sure won't be according to Bill Bodnar in his latest Master the Markets segment. Get ready for releases on GDP and Core PCE, and of course, the Fed Meeting on Wednesday.
Freddie was in sync with Bodnar’s assessment, using this headline for their Primary Mortgage Market Survey: “The 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Shows Little Movement.”
MBA reported that mortgage applications increased 0.8% from one week earlier, but it’s the YoY numbers that are most interesting:
The Refinance Index decreased 3% from the previous week and was 22% higher than the same week one year ago.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4% compared with the previous week and was 22% higher than the same week one year ago.
No June Boon: NAR EHS
Month-over-month:
2.7% decrease in existing-home sales -- seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million in June.
0.6% decline in unsold inventory -- 1.53 million units equal to 4.7 months' supply.
Year-over-year
No change in existing-home sales.
2% increase in median existing-home sales price to $435,300— highest ever.
Choice words from NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun:
"Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price.”
"High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows. If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners,"
"Expanding participation in the housing market will increase the mobility of the workforce and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs."
Steady, But Tepid: June New Home Sales NAHB
Sales of newly built single-family homes edged 0.6% higher in June, rising to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The past two months have been the slowest sales pace since October of last year, as mortgage rates averaged above 6.8% in June.
“Despite targeted incentives and pricing adjustments by builders, demand remains tepid, suggesting these measures have had limited impact on overall sales volume.” -Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis.
Sellers Still Profitable: ATTOM Data’s Q225 US Home Sales Report
SFR and condo homeowners earned a 50% average profit margin, up from 48.1% in Q125, but down from 55.6% in Q224.
Profit margins fell YoY in 79% of metro areas analyzed, with the steepest drops in several FL markets.
The biggest gains were in Hilo, HI, Kalamazoo and Flint, MI, and Trenton, NJ.
Raw profits declined in 2/3 of metros, with the national median at $123K, down $4,990 YoY.
Uh-oh LOs! You’re lagging with the young folks! 2025 NextGen Home Buyer Report
