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Let's Make a Deal
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
Table of Contents
Oil prices are hovering between the mid $70 to low $80 ranges on news that U.S. negotiators have finalized a deal with Iran, which is encouraging to everyone whose mobility depends on gas pumps. For the smaller real estate, mortgage, builder, and vendor communities who live in and watch the housing market, we're wondering what will be new or different at the Fed as new chair Kevin Warsh presides over his first FOMC meeting this week.
CHATTER
Fainthearted Fannie
Originations Forecast Adjusted Downward: Fannie Mae
Artificial Enthusiasm
AI in the Mortgage Process: Veterans United Survey
More than half of prospective homebuyers (53%) would be comfortable buying a home without direct human involvement, according to a new Veterans United Home Loans survey that reflects growing trust in AI tools and technology.
The survey found that nearly 9 in 10 buyers (89%) say they would share personal financial information with an AI-powered lender tool in exchange for tailored mortgage advice, while about 7 in 10 say they would trust the guidance they get.
More than two-thirds of prospective buyers (68%) say they completely or somewhat trust mortgage information provided by AI-based tools. Veterans were notably more confident in the technology, with 77% expressing trust compared to 59% of civilian buyers.
Interest in AI-assisted mortgage shopping is even stronger. More than three-quarters of prospective buyers say they are comfortable using AI tools to shop for mortgage lenders on their behalf.
Only one-quarter of prospective buyers say they would be very comfortable completing a home purchase without direct human involvement, suggesting that many consumers still value the reassurance and judgment that experienced professionals can provide during major financial transactions.
Immigration Status Matters for Mortgage: CFPB
The bureau published a letter on the Federal Register on June 8 stating that lenders may consider immigration status under ability-to-repay rules:
“In making lending decisions, creditors are permitted to take into account a wide range of information in order to make a reasonable assessment of a consumer's ability to repay. Regulation B, which implements the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA), expressly states that “[a] creditor may take the applicant's immigration status into account,” [17] and that a creditor “may consider the applicant's immigration status or status as a permanent resident of the United States, and any additional information that may be necessary to ascertain the creditor's rights and remedies regarding repayment.”
MLS/Real Estate Issues: HW Tackles Questions in MLS/Portal Battles
As disputes and court cases are popping up nationwide, the article asks, “Who controls the listing?” The piece quotes San Diego MLS CEO Saul Klein, who says the industry is split into 4 camps:
Brokerage-controlled listing networks that want more power over their own inventory.
Portal-driven consumer platforms that want comprehensive public visibility on every home.
MLSs trying to preserve the cooperative marketplace while adapting to new competitive realities.
Regulators and lawmakers stepping into a space that used to govern itself.
The article explores this and the fact that Google has a new foray into real estate advertising that could not just upset - but possibly overturn – everybody’s apple carts.
Resilient, but Cautious: TransUnion Q226 Consumer Pulse
US consumers continued to be optimistic about their household finances in the face of resurgent inflation concerns. Affordability pressures intensified as gas prices spiked and income growth slowed. The result was more a change in tone than outlook: Consumers are staying positive while becoming more economically cautious and deliberate. The implications for business leaders indicate a consumer more motivated by affordability, value protection and financial control.
Shop, Haggle, & Save: LendingTree Analysis is a Mixed Bag
Captain Obvious helped write the press release: “Analyzing more than 80,000 mortgage shoppers on its platform, LendingTree found that borrowers who choose the lowest available rate instead of the highest could save an average of $62,572 over the life of a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.”
The “analysis” does have other findings about shopping and negotiating that are more helpful to lenders hoping to capture business.
MOVING & SHAKING
PennyMac added AI expert Tiffany To to its board of directors.
Sequel: President Trump chose former CFPB official Brian Johnson to be the bureau's next director.
Ardley named Chris Calcaola VP of Sales.
Button Finance added three new hires to expand correspondent, home equity, and non-QM efforts. - NMP
MAXEX hired John McNeill as Chief Financial Officer.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
The big question this week is, "What will Warsh do?" Bill Bodnar tackles that and revisits how the trend is our friend in his latest Master the Markets segment.
Mortgage Rates Average 6.52%: Freddie 6-11-26
Mortgage Applications Increased 10.8% from One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 6-5-26.
Market Mix
Refis Retreat, Non-QM Rises: Optimal Blue Market Advantage 5-26
Optimal Blue says rate lock volume dropped 9% MoM in May
Purchase share was 81%, refi 19%
Conforming share was just under 49% after dropping below 50% for the first time in April
Non-QMs took 9% of market share, ARMs 11%.
Mortgage Credit Availability Up in May: MBA
Accessing Equity
Seconds Surge: ICE June 26 Mortgage Monitor
As always, ICE’s MM is chock full of insights, but two in particular stuck out to the InGeniusly Speaking team:
Equity withdrawals grew 2% in Q1 2026, reaching the highest Q1 level since 2021. Cash-out refinance withdrawals were at their highest Q1 level since 2022 and second-lien withdrawals reached their highest Q1 level in 18 years.
Second liens accounted for 54% of equity withdrawals in the quarter.
Nearly 2/3 of second-lien home equity loans and lines originated in the first quarter of 2026 were taken out by borrowers whose primary mortgages were originated between 2020 and 2022.
Existing Sales Inch Up: NAR EHS 5-26
Month-Over-Month
3.2% increase in existing-home sales
3.3% increase in unsold inventory—1.55 million units equal to 4.5 months’ supply
Year-Over-Year
3.2% increase in existing-home sales—seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million in May
1.3% increase in median existing-home sales price to $429,300
“More Americans are on the move, with home sales rising to the highest level since December. This is great news for the housing market and the economy. Improving affordability is helping drive this momentum. Even with mortgage rates ticking up compared to earlier in the year, they remain lower than a year ago and are essentially at the long-term historical average. Income gains are also outpacing home price growth by a small margin in most parts of the country.” NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun
Down Monthly, Up Yearly: ATTOM Data's May Foreclosure Rpt
Foreclosure activity continued its gradual year-over-year increase, even as filings declined from the previous month. A total of 40,355 U.S. properties had a foreclosure filing in May, down 5% from April but up 14% from a year ago.
Foreclosure starts increased 13% year over year to 27,304 properties.
Completed foreclosures (REOs) rose 6% annually to 4,092 properties.