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More Mortgages (Soon)
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
Table of Contents
CHATTER
When and Why “13” Might Be Lucky…
iEmergent Predicts 13% YoY Increase in Originations for 2026
The company released its 2025–2027 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast, projecting total originations will climb to $2.27T in 2026, a 13% increase over 2025, as slowing economic growth and easing interest rates fuel a rebound in refinance activity alongside modest purchase gains.
2025: Total mortgage origination volume is forecast to surpass $2T for the first time since 2022, driven by a 48% jump in refinance dollars and 12% in purchase dollar gains, an overall 20% increase from 2024.
2026: Total mortgage origination volume is projected to reach $2.27T, a 13% increase from 2025. Refinance units are expected to grow 24% as lower rates boost activity, and a 2.3% increase in purchase units will help push total loan count up nearly 10% YoY.
2027: Purchase activity is projected at 4.09M loans totaling $1.56T, while refinance units are expected to hold steady at 2.37M, with dollars dipping slightly at $754B.
Riffing: Office of Management & Budget Says the RIF Has Begun
OMB has sent out approximately 4200 Reduction In Force notices. It’s estimated that 442 will be cut from HUD.
Rocket Reaches Higher: Sets Conforming Loan Limits $6500 Above the Pack
Rocket Mortgage is setting its conforming loans at $825,550 for a one-unit property. In Alaska and Hawaii, the limit for a single-unit home is $1,238,325. UWM, Pennymac, Cross Country, and Rate set loan limits to $819,000.
Lenders Stealing from the Airline Playbook?
Another Attempt to Make 'Em Sticky: UWM Partners with Loyalty Platform Bilt
Through this partnership, UWM becomes the first mortgage platform allowing its loan customers to earn rewards on their mortgage payments and during origination. 40,000 merchants are participating where consumers can redeem rewards.
Senate Said Yes: ROAD to Housing Act 2025
The bill text incorporates part of at least 27 previously introduced pieces of legislation, 23 of which were introduced with bipartisan sponsors. NAR says the bill includes provisions to:
Building More Homes and Cutting Red Tape
Opening Doors to Homeownership
Supporting Housing Innovation
Helping Communities Recover from Disasters
Did Zillow Trip Over Its Tech?
Tricky Tech: Zillow Sued Over Climate Rating (Houzeo)
Defendants: Zillow Group Inc. and First Street Technology
The lawsuit alleges that Zillow and First Street Technology’s “extreme” 9/10 flood risk rating stigmatized the couple’s home as unsellable at market value.
The plaintiffs claim that the rating contradicted FEMA flood zone maps, local inspections, and the home’s physical features.
The plaintiffs seek $500,000 in damages, alleging the data caused a $100,000 sale loss after months on the market.
The complaint states that the property is not in a FEMA flood zone, has never flooded, and does not require flood insurance.
After the lawsuit, Zillow added FEMA flood ratings and disclaimers to listings to indicate possible discrepancies in climate risk data.
Zillow has not commented on the case, which remains pending in New York County Superior Court.
There’s Another Predictor in Town: Xactus Mortgage Intent Index (HW)
Updated daily, the index offers lenders and economists early insights into mortgage demand, enabling proactive strategies. The index is built from millions of credit pull transactions across Xactus's network.
“You can benchmark applications, locks and closed loans, but there is nothing to benchmark credit pulls with. Now, there is a way to benchmark it.” - Thomas Lloyd, chief strategy officer at Xactus
Analytics for the Back of the House: (HW)
Insight for Mortgage enables lenders to benchmark their operations against peers, analyzing key metrics such as pull-through rates, processing times and credit scores.
Insight for Mortgage aims to mitigate and address common challenges facing financial institutions, including but not limited to siloed reporting systems, delayed decision making and difficulties using large volumes of data effectively.
MOVING & SHAKING
Cornerstone to Acquire Peoples Bank by Merger: The board of both companies have unanimously approved the deal; the combined institution will have approximately $3.1 billion in assets.
loanDepot brought Rick Calle back on board as Chief Strategy Officer.
New American Funding welcomed Nathan Ballentine as RVP for South Carolina.
The American Land Title Association (ALTA) elected David. A Townsend as its president for its 2025-26 election year. Townsend is the senior vice president agency division manager for the FNF Family of Companies.
DSCR lender Visio announced Michele Kryczkowski as COO.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Mortgage Rates Decrease: Freddie 10-16-25
Mortgage rates inched down this week and have held relatively steady over the past several weeks.
On the QT - Quantitative Tightening, That Is…
The wind is at the industry's back according to Bill Bodnar in his latest Master the Markets segment. The Fed is about 10 days out from their next meeting, so the govs will be quiet this week. We'll get some indicators this Friday, but "until it ends, the trend is our friend."
Refi Gains Still Big YoY
Mortgage Applications Decreased 1.8% from One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 10-10-25.
The Refinance Index was down 1% from the previous week, but was 59% higher than the same week last year.
MBA Builder Application Survey (BAS) data says apps for new home purchases were up 2% YoY and down 5% MoM.
Happier Home Builders: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index At Highest Since April
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 37 in October, up five points from September and the highest reading since April.
“The HMI gain in October is a positive signal for 2026 as our forecast is for single-family housing starts to gain ground next year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
Super Happy About HELOCs: TD Bank Survey
Of those who have accessed home equity products, 86% say a home equity line of credit (HELOC) is an important part of their financial safety net, and 70% of all homeowners agree that a HELOC can help them manage expenses and boost financial confidence.
Additionally, 82% of homeowners recognize the substantial advantages of using a HELOC for repairs, debt consolidation, emergencies.
“As a result, we are seeing an increasing number of individuals leveraging their home equity as a means to enhance their financial position.” Steve Kaminski, Head of Residential Lending at TD Bank
Owners Still Earning: ATTOM Data Q325 US Home Sales Report Still Shows Profits
Homeowners made a 49.9% profit on typical single-family home and condo sales during Q325.
The national median sale price hit a record $370,000, up 1.2% quarterly and 3.4% YoY, marking the 2nd straight quarterly high.
Typical gross profit reached $123,100, a modest 1.9% increase from Q2, though still 3.5% below last year’s level.
Also of note: Homeownership tenure hit a record 8.4 years, the longest in at least 25 years, suggesting sellers are holding properties longer before cashing out.
Underperforming: First American’s Odeta Kushi Says the Market is Stifled
Historically, prior to the pandemic, existing-home sales average about 4.1% of total U.S. households. Applying that long-term rate to today’s total households implies an annualized pace of roughly 5.4M annualized sales—about 35% higher than the current rate of 4M. This gap reflects suppressed market participation rather than a shortage of potential movers.
Here's the hope she offers: “Housing turnover still happens because life still happens. Life events, such as marriage, expanding families, job changes and divorce, always has and always will drive sales activity.” – First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi
“The Dream” Includes a Home for Gen Z: Realtor.com
1 in 5 survey respondents said housing affordability is their top concern. The Gen Z adults surveyed are between the ages of 18 and 27 and currently own a home or hope to in the future.
67% of survey respondents said that homeownership is a "somewhat or very important lifetime goal of theirs," while 69% agreed that real estate is a chance to build wealth. Meanwhile, 51% thought it's "somewhat or very important" part of the American dream.
Rent Report: Affordability Improved for 26th Straight Month (Realtor.com)
In September 2025, nationwide rent was slightly more affordable than in the previous year. Renters earning the typical household income devoted 23.4% of their income to lease a typical for-rent home (vs. 24.9% in September 2024).
5 of the top 50 metros had a rent share higher than 30% relative to the median household income.