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Musical Chairs
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
The Fed Shuffle: President Trump picked Stephen Miran to fill the Fed Governor seat freshly vacated by Adriana Kugler. Miran has been critical of the body and has suggested sweeping change; we'll see if he remains in the seat or if Trump swaps him out for his choice to be the next Fed chair when Jerome Powell's term ends next May. Another seat will open in July 2026, but who knows? Someone else may decide to jump ship before their term expires.
How's the market? An InGeniusly Speaking team member who has her home listed describes this summer's market as being like potato salad that has been sitting in the sun for hours: “Go ahead and dive in if you're starving, but you might be in for a long night.”
Commenting on the anemic June pending sales index, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said, ”The REALTORS® Confidence Index shows early indications of potential contract signings increasing moving forward. REALTORS® are optimistic that homebuying and selling activity will increase. That confidence is supported by the fact that mortgage applications have been rising." We shall see.
CHATTER
Ta-ta Trigger Leads: H.R. 2808 Unanimously Passes the Senate
This bill limits the circumstances in which credit reporting agencies may provide consumer credit reports to third parties in connection with residential mortgage transactions.
Bank CEOs Met with Trump to Discuss GSE Privatization: Citi CEO Jane Fraser and BofA Chief Brian Moynihan met with the president to pitch IPO plans.
Millman Says Default Risk Rose Slightly QoQ: The Milliman Mortgage Default Index Q125 for government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) acquisitions is up slightly to 2.13% for loans acquired in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, from 2.05% for loans acquired in 2024 Q4.
Primary causes of the increase include slightly higher economic risk, slightly higher average loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) ratios, and slightly lower average FICO score.
AG Mortgage upped its ownership in Arc Home with intent of expanding Non-QM.
Community Home Lenders of America (CHLA) Floats Tax Plan to Help 1st-Time Buyers (HW)
From Sarah Wolak's story: "The proposal, which is modeled after the commercial 1031 Starker Exchange concept, would exclude taxes on capital gains on the sale of up to $50,000 in stocks/bonds/mutual funds/publicly traded REITs, or taxable gains on the sale of a principal residence, when the sale proceeds are gifted to a child or grandchild and used by them within six months as a down payment on a first-time home purchase. While the $50,000 cap is a lifetime cap for each taxpayer, the exclusion may be taken for more than one child or grandchild, subject to the $50,000 cap."
Subprime Smackdown: Bankrate's 2025 Credit Denials Survey
Subprime borrowers are charged nearly $3,400 more than others on average for essential financial products each year, according to Bankrate’s 2025 Credit Denials Survey.
The subprime tax costs at least 4% of annual income for a typical American household with low credit.
The survey found that the subprime tax affects roughly 1 in 5 American adults (21%).
Mr. Cooper in Court (NMP): Texas federal judge allows key claims in a major class‑action lawsuit against Mr. Cooper — filed after a late‑2023 cyberattack exposed the data of nearly 15M customers — to move forward.
Insurance Issues Bouncing Borrowers: Matic's 2025 Home Insurance Report
64% of lenders reported experiencing issues with home insurance either frequently or somewhat frequently over the past year. Common problems include DTI (debt-to-income) ratios becoming too high once the cost of insurance was factored in and delayed closings due to the time it takes to secure adequate coverage.
72% of lenders surveyed expressed being “very concerned” about how economic changes and uncertainty could continue to impact home insurance, and by extension, the mortgage process.
MOVING & SHAKING
Anthony Hsieh has been appointed permanent Chief Executive Officer by loanDepot's Board of Directors. Hsieh has served as Interim CEO since the departure of Frank Martell on June 4, 2025.
loanDepot announced the return of Dominick Marchetti and Sean DeJulia to serve as Chief Digital Officer and Chief Innovation Officer, respectively. The company also announced that Tom Fiddler will be President of Retail Lending, and Dan Pena will serve as President of Partnership Lending.
Rate brought recruiter Tina Jablonski on as SVP of Market Growth.
Joe Gormley was nominated to become Ginnie Mae President.
Frank Cassidy has been nominated for FHA Commissioner.
Guaranteed Rate Affinity appointed Tom Griffith Regional Manager for the Pacific Northwest.
Onity welcomed Luke Baer as VP Data Science and Analytics.
MONEY
UWM boasts QoQ and YoY originations gains for Q225.
loanDepot reports increased revenue, decreased expenses:
Expenses decreased 2% to $315M, driven primarily by lower general and administrative expenses; volume-related expenses increased 12% to $114M compared to 30% increase in origination volume reflecting investments in operating efficiency.
Net loss of $25M was down 38%, compared with net loss of $41M in the prior quarter.
Guild "delivered in the second quarter the strongest performance in many categories that [they’ve] reported in several years, despite a constrained and challenging market," according to CEO Terry Schmidt. Guild posted $7.5B in originations and $18.7M in net income.
Better announced 25% YoY loan fundings for Q2.
Angel Oak released Q225 earnings.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
The chance of a Fed rate cut in September more than doubled after the jobs report debacle and Fed speakers will likely be spewing their thoughts to the public; but indicators this week will be all about inflation according to Bill Bodnar in his latest Master the Markets segment.
Mortgage Rates Continue to Decrease: Freddie 8-7-25
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to its lowest level since April.
Mortgage Applications Increased 3.1% From One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending August 1, 2025.
The Market Composite Index increased 3.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3% compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index increased 5% from the previous week and was 18% higher than the same week one year ago.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1% compared with the previous week and was 18% higher than the same week one year ago.
Chicken Little or Accurate Depiction? John Burns Claims Home Prices Falling in 35% of Country
Resale prices are down compared to one year ago in 53 of 150 markets tracked by Burns, with declines spreading beyond Texas and Florida.
New home prices, including builder concessions and incentives, have fallen -1.5% versus last year as builders have been caught with too many completed, unsold homes for the first time in many years.
Burns also said resale prices have risen in 65% of the country over the last year, indicating local dynamics differ.
No Bust on Horizon: First Am Deputy Chief Econ on Home Prices
“Not every housing boom ends in a bust. This time is different…really.” - Odeta Kushi
Preliminary data from June and July indicate that affordability on an annual basis has improved for six consecutive months: Affordability across the nation improved by 4.4% annually in May.
Despite slowing price growth nationally, national house prices are unlikely to experience a significant and sustained decline.
Tighter lending standards, stronger credit quality, significant equity cushions and a structural housing shortage make this housing cycle unique from the last one.
Market Mover? Redfin Chief Econ Opines on Reduction/Elimination of Cap Gains on Primary Res:
Snippets from Daryl Fairweather’s piece - agree, or disagree?
“Seniors who delayed selling their homes to avoid a tax bill may decide to sell, or to take advantage of their equity.”
“Homeowners on the cusp of the capital-gains exemption cutoff may delay selling under the new rule.”
“Removing the capital gains tax would be a tax break for wealthy homeowners, but may come at the expense of other taxpayers.”
Fabulous or Ridiculous? HW Story on “Podcasts for” Listings
Custom “podcasts” that get sent to buyers after showings, recordings are roughly three to four minutes in length.
Dubbed HouseCast, the tool uses AI to create audio clips that are delivered automatically within hours of a visit.
Clips include descriptions of a property’s layout, standout features, renovation potential, garden orientation, and information about local amenities such as schools and historical context.
Seems like “everybody has a show” these days.