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Q4ward
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
Table of Contents
CHATTER
Are they all the same now?
Burgeoning Behemoth: Compass to Acquire Anywhere
New York-based Compass has agreed to acquire rival Anywhere Real Estate in an all-stock transaction that will create a combined company with a total value of roughly $10 billion, including debt, the companies said Monday.
Anywhere Real Estate is home to several major real estate brokerage brands: Century 21, Better Homes and Gardens, Coldwell Banker, Corcoran, ERA and Sotheby’s International Realty. The Madison, New Jersey-based company also operates relocation, title and settlement businesses.
Zomething Ztinks? Former Zillow Employee Sues for Discrimination (HW)
A 14-year Zillow veteran is suing the company, alleging they blocked promotions and fired him for a $700 "working dinner tab” after he complained of discrimination.
"Walk Away Settlement" - Valdes and Cornerstone Lay Down Arms: NMP
The deal ends a 3-year legal battle of suit/countersuit between Manuel Valdes, Cornerstone Capital Bank and principals Marc Laird and Adam Laird. Valdes sought $140M in damages, claiming that he faced consistent harassment, discrimination, and retaliation. There is no monetary settlement, no party admits wrongdoing, and all parties are paying their own legal costs.
OceanFirst Bank Handoff and Layoffs: The company is going to shift residential mortgage operations to a partnership with Embrace Home Loans and layoff approximately 114 employees.
Holy wholesale Batman…
From Fast to Big: OCMBC, Inc. announced the retirement of its DBA, Jet Advantage Mortgage, and the official launch of GIANT Lending—a division that embodies its unwavering commitment to mortgage brokers nationwide.
Flyhomes Will Shift Focus from Real Estate to Wholesale Lending: The company will transition its agents to another brokerage platform and focus exclusively on distributing its flagship Buy Before You Sell products through wholesale channels.
Baltimore's Bold Plan: $6.2B Redevelopment Initiative
The city will use a combination of public and private money to execute a 15-year strategy that will initially revitalize more than 37,000 vacant or at-risk properties, tipping market conditions for private development across an additional 33,000 houses and lots.
The Race to Up Limits: Growing List of Lenders Raising Conforming Limits to $819K (NMN)
UWM, Pennymac, CrossCountry, and Rate have all said they'll underwrite loans up to that figure for eventual sale to Fannie and Freddie.
MOVING & SHAKING
Rate hired Ryan Proffitt as producing area manager for Jacksonville, FL.
EPM named Anjanette Valenta Chief People Officer.
Planet Home Lending has hired John Adams as Retail Renovation Leader.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Is the Way Paved for an October Fed Cut? We'll find out this week with the JOLTS and ADP numbers. Bill Bodnar breaks down what we could see as we start Q4 in his latest Master the Markets segment.
Mortgage Rates Inch Up: Freddie 9-25-25
Following several weeks of decline, mortgage rates inched up this week. Housing market activity continues to hold up with purchase and refinance applications increasing by 18% and 42%, respectively, compared to the same time last year.
Mortgage Applications Increased 0.6% from One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 9-19-25.
Homebuyer Affordability Improved in August: The national median payment applied for by purchase applicants decreasing to $2,100 from $2,127 in August. -MBA Purchase Applications Payment Index PAPI
Yet, Affordability Still an Issue: ATTOM Data Q3 U.S. Home Affordability Report
Median-priced single family homes and condos were less affordable than historical averages in 99 percent of counties with sufficient data to analyze.
Of the 580 counties in ATTOM’s analysis, 44.7 percent (259) had worse affordability index ratings in the third quarter than in the second.
Nationwide, the median value of a home has gone up 58 percent since the beginning of 2020 while typical wages have risen by 28 percent.
Loosening up; but Fannie’s still frigid…
Frigid Fannie: ESR Group Grudgingly Makes Upward Revisions
The Economic Strategy & Research Group revised their real gross domestic product (GDP) growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 to 1.5% and 2.1% on a Q4/Q4 basis, compared to 1.1% and 2.2% in their prior forecast, respectively.
They expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 3.1% Q4/Q4 in 2025, compared to our August forecast of 3.3%. The CPI outlook for 2026 is 2.6%, unchanged from our prior forecast. Core CPI is expected to rise 3.2% Q4/Q4 in 2025 (3.3% previously) and 2.7% in 2026 (2.6% previously).
Mortgage rate forecast: End 2025 and 2026 at 6.4% and 5.9%, respectively, compared to 6.5 and 6.1% in our prior forecast.
Total home sales outlook for 2025 was revised to 4.72M, compared to 4.74M previously. 2026 home sales projection is 5.16M, compared to 5.23M previously.
They project single-family mortgage originations to rise to $1.85T and $2.32T, respectively, for 2025 and 2026, compared to previous forecast of $1.85T and $2.26T, respectively.
Underperforming August: NAR August EHS
Month-over-month:
0.2% decrease in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million in August.
1.3% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.53 million units equal to 4.6 months' supply.
Year-over-year:
1.8% increase in existing-home sales
2.0% increase in median existing-home sales price to $422,600.
"Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory. However, mortgage rates are declining and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months." - NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun
That new home smell…
New Homes on the Move: Census Bureau/HUD August Release
Sales of new single-family houses in August 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 800,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 20.5% (±21.8%)* above the July 2025 rate of 664,000, and is 15.4% (±25.1%)* above the August 2024 rate of 693,000.
What’s with the Slump?: First Am’s Odeta Kushi
Existing-home sales remain well below historical data would suggest for a market of today’s size.
Active listings are still 22% lower than the 2015–2019 average, and the annual pace of improvement is slowing.
Lower mortgage rates and improved affordability should encourage some buyers and discouraged sellers to re-enter the market.
What’s Driving 2nd Home Buyers? RCLCO 2025 Vacation/Investment Home Survey Uncovered Interests:
Rising interest in iInvestment-oriented vacation homes
Pent-up demand & opportunity at lower price points
Amenities drive purchase motivations, with a resurgence of interest in golf
Here’s what 2nd home investors are thinking of doing with the properties:
Investors Bought 33% of Homes in Q2: Investor Pulse™Report from BatchData
Real estate investors purchased 33% of all single-family residential properties sold in Q225, the highest percentage of investor purchases in the last five years
"Interestingly, while the percentage of single-family homes purchased by investors rose to a five-year high, the actual number of homes purchased during Q225 was 16,000 fewer than a year ago. So the relatively high percentage of home purchases by investors is at least partly due to overall home sales being weaker in Q2 2025 than they were in Q2 2024." - BatchData Co-Founder and Chief Innovation Officer Ivo Draginov
Small investors who owned between one and five properties held 87% of the single-family homes owned by investors; those owning six to 10 properties owned another 4%. The largest investors – those owning 1,000 or more properties – account for just 2% of all investor-owned homes.
Precarious Public: VantageScore August CreditGauge
Rising Credit Card Balances Indicate Consumer Credit Stress: The average Credit Card balance rose to $6.5K in August 2025, up $96 year-over-year and $67 from July 2025. The utilization rate also increased to 30.77%, suggesting increased consumer reliance on revolving credit amid persistent cost-of-living pressures.
Unsecured Credit Originations Grow As Consumers Seek Liquidity Through Refinancing: Unsecured loan originations rose across key products on a month-over-month basis, led by Personal Loans (+0.45%) and Credit Cards (+0.39%). Unsecured credit originations rose faster than secured ones, reflecting increased demand for liquidity, as consumers refinance debt with unsecured loans.
“The broad-based decline in consumer credit quality indicates that economic pressures are no longer concentrated among some VantageScore credit tiers and income levels. For example, the increase in Auto Loan and Personal Loan credit delinquencies likely reflects, in part, the compounding effects of sustained inflation, consistently elevated interest rates, higher borrowing costs, and an unsteady employment picture.” Susan Fahy, EVP and Chief Digital Officer at VantageScore.
Fix This: Homes Marketed as "Fixer Uppers" Get 52% More Views
The realtor.com report focused on single-family homes at least 20 years old and have a listing price per square foot below the median for their ZIP code.
Fixer-uppers are priced 54.2% lower than the median single-family home in the U.S. They tend to be smaller and older as well.
The median listing price of homes identified as fixer-uppers is $200,000 nationwide as of July 2025, while the median listing price for all single-family homes nationwide is $436,250
Fixer-uppers spend slightly more time on the market than comparable older and affordable homes, but they are catching up compared to July 2021.
Wishful thinking? Best buyer week of ‘25 ahead?
Buyer Boost? October 12-18 is a Timing Sweet Spot NAR
Mark your calendars: The week of Oct. 12-18, as well as its surrounding weeks, could offer home buyers a prime time to make an offer on a home. A new study from realtor.com® finds the week offers a rare trifecta—more listings, lower prices and less competition—creating an ideal moment for agents to help home shoppers to make their move.
“I expect this market momentum shift to magnify typical seasonal trends that favor home buyers in the fall. According to realtor.com®’s data, the particular week of Oct. 12-18 could bring buyers not only more homes to choose among and fewer competing shoppers, but also potential average savings of more than $15,000 compared to this summer’s peak prices.
“In a year that’s been the most buyer-friendly in nearly a decade, it’s the best window of opportunity for home buyers all year. Plus, after a slower-than-usual summer for home sales, buyer demand may be poised for a rebound if mortgage rates continue to ease and home price increases slow.” Danielle Hale, realtor.com®’s chief economist