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Same $&!#, Different Year?
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
January 27, 2025
Fannie Mae’s ESR Group revised its 2025 housing forecast downward under the headline, “Higher Mortgage Rates Likely to Keep Existing Home Sales Near Multi-Decade Lows.” Fannie Chief Economist Mark Palim added to the cheer, saying, “[ ]…our expectation that home sales activity will remain limited, combined with the elevated rate environment, reaffirms our view that on a national level the 2025 housing market is shaping up to feel a lot like 2024.”
MBA's Monthly Loan Monitoring Survey found that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.47% as of December 31, 2024. That’s nice, but TransUnion found last fall that 4 out of 5 recent home buyers plan to refi this year to alleviate strain on their finances.
An NMN research report found that 70% of the lending industry has plans to hire in 2025, but most with the caveat that they will do so as business increases.
CHATTER
MBA’S IMB CONFERENCE UNDERWAY: The industry headed to Austin for one of the biggest events of the year.
SPANKING BANKS: In a virtual speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, President Trump called out Bank of America for allegedly debanking conservatives. BofA CEO Brian Moynihan denied the claim.
ON HOLD? The CFPB rule that bans medical debt from credit reports could be delayed due to a Trump executive order creating a "regulatory freeze pending review".
AMBITIOUS UPGRADE: Rocket Announces RE/Mortgage in One Site
Rocket calls itself “mortgage, real estate and personal finance businesses.” The company announced the launch of Rocket.com, saying the site “empowers consumers to search, purchase and manage their home financing with an intuitive, AI-driven experience, simplifying every step of the homeownership journey.”
SUPPORT & RALLY CRY TO FHA: In a statement supporting Trump’s nominee for HUD Secretary Scott Turner who made it out of committee last week, MBA’s President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, CMB added the following: “FHA’s healthy financial position – with a capital reserve ratio more than five times the statutory requirement – presents an immediate opportunity for the Trump administration to reduce housing costs for low- to moderate-income Americans by reducing FHA mortgage insurance premiums. Similar moves could also be taken to make HUD’s multifamily programs less expensive, including lowering multifamily mortgage insurance premiums and excessive escrow account requirements.”
COMPLICATED KICKBACKS? NMP reports on a suit filed by the PA AG against six mortgage brokerages alleging an exhausting kickback scheme.
MBA STEPPING UP: Opens Doors Foundation Launches New Initiative
“The MBA Opens Doors Disaster Relief Program is a new initiative that complements the Foundation’s existing Home Grant Program and will double the amount of housing assistance available to families with a child in treatment at Children’s Hospital Los Angeles who have been impacted by the horrific wildfires in Southern California.” - MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, CMB.
MOVING & SHAKING
MBA Promotes Megan Booth to VP of Commercial/Multifamily Policy.
The Mortgage Collaborative welcomed Jodi Hall as President & CEO.
Guaranteed Rate Affinity named Andy Ward Originating Manager in MO area.
Lower named Redfin alum Adam Weiner as President.
Treliant announced Andrew Surgan as Managing Director, Regulatory Compliance, Mortgage, and Operations Solutions.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
In the latest Master the Markets segment, Bill Bodnar sets the stage for the Fed this week…no cuts expected, but their comments could tell us a lot.
MORTGAGE RATES DROP BELOW 7%: Freddie 1-23-24
After crossing the 7%-mark last week, the 30-year FRM saw its first decline in six weeks. While affordability challenges remain, this is welcome news for potential homebuyers, as reflected in a corresponding uptick in purchase applications.
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS INCREASED 0.1% FROM ONE WEEK EARLIER: MBA Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending 1-17-25.
SALES DOWN, PRICES UP: NAR EHS
Even with the solid upturn in the fourth quarter, on an annual basis, existing-home sales (4.06 million) fell to the lowest level in nearly 30 years, while the median price reached a record high of $407,500 in 2024.
SLIDING SELLER PROFITS: ATTOM Data Released Year-End 2024 U.S. Home Sales Report
Home sellers made a $122,500 profit on typical sales nationwide in 2024, generating a 53.8% ROI.
But even as both measures remained near record levels, and home prices kept rising around the country, the profit margin on median-priced sales nationwide decreased from 56.9% from 2023. The drop-off marked the second straight annual decline – a pattern of consecutive downturns that hadn’t happened since the aftermath of the Great Recession in the late 2000s.
The typical 2024 price was almost 2 ½ times the nationwide median in 2011, a point in time right before the housing market began recovering from the Great Recession.
ROBO-TITLE PROS & CONS: HW on Fannie Mae Title Insurance Pilot
What is it? A pilot program running through May ’26, providing ability for homeowners doing a refi to get an automated title review instead of full-on new lender’s policy.
Who loves it: Homeowners who will see an average savings around $1K depending on where they live, and people who will start up auto-review title services.
Who hates it: Title companies, ALTA, State Attorneys General…they say it shifts risk from title insurers to Fannie itself.