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- Scary Shakeup Ahead?
Scary Shakeup Ahead?
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
Table of Contents
CHATTER
Are Lenders About to Have Their Own “NAR Settlement?”
Reeeeeeally Big Antitrust Suit…
Four homeowners have filed a sweeping antitrust lawsuit accusing Optimal Blue, LLC and 26 of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders of conspiring to fix mortgage rates through a data-sharing platform that allegedly turned competitors into collaborators, including Rocket Mortgage, UWM, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America
The class action claims that Optimal Blue and its clients secretly exchanged non-public loan data to “orchestrate a price-fixing scheme that has inflicted substantial damages on Plaintiffs and the Class.”
Builder Bashing?!
Social Rants Causing S&P Losses for Builders: NMN
A series of social media posts, from the US president over the weekend and then from the FHFA director and real estate scion Pulte on Wednesday, are helping put an S&P gauge of builders on track for a four-day losing streak.
The latest losses followed a Sunday post from Trump who said homebuilders were sitting on millions of empty lots, and "they have to start building Homes." Pulte followed with his own critique.
Fifth Third will acquire Comerica in a $10.9B all stock deal. The deal - expected to close in Q126 - will create the nation's 9th largest lender.
Annaly agreed to purchase a portfolio of mortgage servicing rights (“MSR”) from Pennymac. Under the agreements, Pennymac will handle all servicing and recapture activities for the MSR sold to Annaly.
ChatGPT is Indeed Everywhere: Zillow Launches App Within ChatGPT
The partnership allows people to browse homes, explore neighborhoods, and learn more about affordability in natural conversation within ChatGPT, powered by Zillow’s trusted housing insights and AI technology. How it works:
When Zillow powers results: Zillow’s data appears when a user explicitly includes Zillow as the first word in their message (e.g., “Zillow, show me homes for sale”) or when ChatGPT recommends Zillow for a relevant housing prompt (e.g., “find me a rental in Denver under $2,000”).
For-sale vs. rentals: For most queries, users need to specify whether they want homes for sale or rentals. If it isn’t clear, the experience defaults to for-sale listings — except in area detail carousels, which can display both.
Credit Price Issues Leading to Cost Cutting: Equifax (FICO vs. Everyone Else)
VantageScore® 4.0 mortgage credit scores will be priced by Equifax at $4.50 for two years – more than 50% below FICO – offering mortgage credit score conversion at a lower price point.
Free VantageScore 4.0 credit scores will be offered through the end of 2026 to all Equifax mortgage, automotive, card, and consumer finance customers who purchase FICO scores to drive industry adoption.
ADU Income Allowed: Fannie Mae
Guidelines for using ADU income for qualification issued 10/8/25.
$28B in Untapped VA Loan Volume: Veterans United
VU’s nationwide analysis found that more than 58,000 VA loans went unused in 2024, representing nearly $28B in missed loan volume.
To determine the potential loan volume that is going untapped throughout the U.S., Veterans United compared VA loan utilization to the national average, adjusting for the size of the Veteran population. The number of "missed" VA loans was multiplied by each metro's median listing price to estimate the potential volume left untapped.
NY AG Leticia James Criminally Indicted for Mortgage Fraud
The two counts and 5-page filing said James lied “to obtain favorable loan terms not available for investment properties,” they noted in the five-page filing, saving her “approximately $18,933 over the life of the loan.”
If convicted on both counts, James faces up to 60 years in prison and a fine of up to $2 million.
MBA Applauds the Senate's Passage of the ROAD to Housing Act of 2025 in the NDAA.
MOVING & SHAKING
FHFA Director Bill Pulte Appoints Brandon Hamara as Full-Time Fannie Mae Board Member (NMP)
Hamara is the VP of Tri Pointe Homes and a current Freddie Mac board member.
Pennymac Named Kevin Ryan as Chief Strategy Officer.
Planet Financial Group Named Rob Parsley as SVP, Non-Agency Sales.
Rate Expands FL Presence with Addition of Sales Manager Lynn Nemes.
Cliffco Mortgage Appointed Rohit Suri Wholesale Sales Director.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Fragmented Fed: Notes from the last Fed meeting show disagreement on the committee, and Bill Bodnar notes how the Middle East deal might bode well for the industry in his latest Master the Markets segment.
Mortgage Rates Move Down: Freddie 10-9-25
Mortgage rates decreased this week. Over the last few weeks, mortgage rates have settled in at their lowest level in about a year. There is growing evidence that homebuyers are digesting these lower rates and gradually are willing to move forward with buying a home, which is boosting purchase activity.
Mortgage Applications Decreased 4.7% from One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 10-3-25.
Mortgage Credit Availability Up in September: The MCAI rose by 0.4% to 104.4 in September.
Significant Fallout…
15% of Transactions Fell Out in August: Redfin
That’s up from 14.3% a year earlier and marks the highest August rate in records dating back to 2017.
Buyers are skittish and selective due to high prices, high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. They’re asking sellers for all sorts of repairs, price reductions and other concessions because a) it’s expensive to buy a home and b) it’s a buyer’s market, meaning buyers hold the negotiating power. There are roughly 500,000 more sellers than buyers in the market, which empowers buyers to negotiate because they have options.
AI Over Agents?
Real Estate Agents Lead as Info Source, But Not by Much: Realtor.com Survey
82% of consumers are using AI for real estate insights.
Among AI platforms, ChatGPT (67%) and Gemini (54%) lead the way, with more than half of respondents saying they’re excited about how AI can personalize their search.
Social media is also a common place for Americans to turn, with nearly 90% of them relying on some form of social media for housing-related content. The most used tools are YouTube (73%) and Facebook (57%). For Gen Z, perhaps unsurprisingly, a majority (76%) say TikTok is one of their go-to for housing content, more than any other generation.
When asked which sources make them “smarter” about the market, real estate agents led (62%), followed by AI (61%), traditional media, and social platforms. Agents were also rated the most accurate source of market information, ahead of AI, family and friends, and the news.
There are 3X More Condo Sellers Than Buyers: Redfin
There were an estimated 72.3% more condo sellers than buyers (108,945 more) nationwide in August. That marks the 5th straight month in which there have been at least 70% more condo sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market.
That makes spring and summer 2025 the strongest buyer’s market for condo buyers in records dating back to 2013, with the exception of April 2020, when the start of the pandemic halted homebuying activity.
Cash Sales Nearing Early 2010s Levels: Realtor.com
Roughly one-third (32.8%) of homes sold in the first half of 2025 were paid for in all cash, down slightly (-0.6%) compared to the first half of 2024, but well above pre-pandemic levels. Cash sales share peaked in 2012 at 35.4%.
Cash buyers are the most active at the low and high ends of the price spectrum.
Lower-priced markets and popular second-home markets tend to see more all-cash sales.
High-priced and less competitive markets tend to see a lower share of all-cash sales. Economic hubs with a high share of young households and homeowners also tend to have a lower share of all-cash purchases.
Elevated cash activity reflects wealth concentration, investor activity, and mortgage rate avoidance.
If rates fall, the market may rebalance toward financed buyers.
Time to Panic? Maybe Not Yet…
Activity Up: ATTOM Data Q325 Foreclosure Market Report
Foreclosures rose 1% from Q2 to Q3, 17% YoY
Foreclosure starts were up 2% QoQ and 16% YoY – highest numbers in TX, FL, CA
Lender repossessions (REOs) were up 33%, highest YoY increase since mid 2023