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Snippy Statement
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
Shortest press release ever: The CFPB statement on the appointment of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as its acting director was exactly two sentences. Maybe the media team got locked out; but whoever is left in the building won't be making any rules. Politico reported that Bessent "directed CFPB staff to stop all rulemaking and suspend the effective dates of rules that haven’t gone into effect yet, and ordered employees to halt any activity related to enforcement matters, litigation and public communications." When asked about mortgage rates, the newly-minted Treasury Secretary said in multiple interviews last week, basically, "F (orget) the Fed - we're focused on taxes and the 10-year Treasury."
NAR's grip slipping? The National Association of Realtors' requirement that members must join their state and local associations is being challenged on multiple fronts. Brokers and real estate licensees in Austin, Texas who don't need the constantly mispronounced "Realtor" title are being given the option to subscribe to Unlock MLS without joining multiple associations and NAR.
CHATTER
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) may not have to wonder if their letter to President Trump will be answered, as tariffs from Canada and Mexico have been put on pause.
Fired Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Rohit Chopra co-authored an article titled "State Enforcement as a Federal Legislative Tool," published in the Harvard Journal of Legislation on January 15th. HousingWire's Chris Clow calls the piece a "parting shot." Fair questions include, 1) Will the bureau be declawed under acting director Scott Bessent, and 2) Will the regulatory and enforcement standards shift to individual states?
PennyMac reported gains in YoY net income and total revenue in Q424.
HousingWire writes about Newrez parent Rithm Capital's 57% profit growth in 2024, while NMN talks about the timing and possibility of a Newrez spinoff.
SAM on the Rise? HousingWire Reports on New Shared Appreciation Mortgage Offering
Click n' Close adds conventional option for its SAM program which was previously reserved for FHA and USDA borrowers.
"I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today." - Popeye comic character J. Wellington Wimpy. Better.com took a page from Wimpy's playbook, announcing the launch of "Better Forever." The loyalty program is designed to entice customers with waived origination fees on future refinance or purchase loans. The company automatically enrolled customers who funded with Better in or after January 2019.
MOVING & SHAKING
Scott Turner was confirmed as Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The MBAissued a statement of support.
Realtor.com bails out of California, moves HQ to Austin, TX.
Matthew Gallant joined the Mortgage Bankers Association as Director of Member Relations for the Northeast region.
Evergreen Home Loans added John Porath as Regional Manager in their effort to expand into the Southeast.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
MORTGAGE RATES DECREASE: Freddie 2-6-25
The 30-year FRM decreased this week, now averaging 6.89%. Mortgage rates have been stable over the last month and incoming data suggest the economy remains on firm footing. Even though rates are higher compared to last year, the last two weeks of purchase applications are modestly above what was seen a year ago, indicating some latent demand in the market.
Bill Bodnar calls last week's jobs report "a mixed bag of noise" in his latest Master the Markets segment, noting also upcoming indicators, the role of rents, hints at the hope of a "ceiling of yield resistance."
MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS INCREASED 2.2% FROM ONE WEEK EARLIER: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 1-31-25.
UP ALMOST ACROSS THE BOARD: 90% of Metros Had Home Price Gains in Q4 (NAR)
Single-family existing-home sales prices rose in 89% of measured metro areas – 201 of 226 – in the fourth quarter, up from 87% in the previous quarter. The national median single-family existing-home price climbed 4.8% from a year ago to $410,100.
Thirty-two markets (14%) recorded double-digit annual price appreciation (up from 7% in the prior quarter).
The monthly mortgage payment on a typical, existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $2,124 – down 1.7% from one year ago.
"Record-high home prices and the accompanying housing wealth gains are definitely good news for property owners. However, renters who are looking to transition into homeownership face significant hurdles." - NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
NOVEMBER GAIN: Home Prices Ticked Up CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index 11-24
November marked the first month of reversal of slowing annual appreciation. With home prices mostly flattening out during the seasonally slow time of the year for the housing market, the index ticked back up to 3.8% from last month’s annual 3.6% gain. With most of the home appreciation happening earlier in the year, 2024 ended below 2023 for overall appreciation, though there were notable variations across regions. The Northeast led with more than 7% total appreciation, while the South lagged, down by an average of 2%.
OWN STILL BEATS RENT IN 66% OF COUNTIES: ATTOM Data 2025 Rental Affordability Report
Both owning and renting remain difficult for average U.S. workers, commonly consuming 25 to 60% of their wages. But major ownership expenses on typical single-family homes nevertheless require a smaller portion of average wages than renting three-bedroom residences in close to 60% of the 341 county-level markets with enough data to analyze.
Owning is the more affordable choice – for those who can manage a down payment – despite median home prices generally rising faster over the past year than average rents around the country.
Home prices are increasing faster than rents in 66% of counties.
The Midwest and South lead in affordability, while the West favors renting.
Counties like Suffolk, NY, and Collier, FL, show the largest affordability gaps favoring homeownership, while counties such as Alameda, CA, and Honolulu, HI, favor renting.
Average wages are rising faster than rents in 72% of markets but trail behind home price increases in 52% of counties.
GOVERNMENT DELINQUENTS: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in Q424 (MBA)
The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on 1-4 unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.98% of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, according to MBA’s National Delinquency Survey.
The delinquency rate was up 6 bps from Q324 and up 10 bps YoY. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter rose by 1 basis point to 0.15%.
“Although mortgage delinquencies rose only ten basis points in the fourth Q424 YoY, the composition of the delinquencies changed. Conventional delinquencies remain near historical lows, but FHA and VA delinquencies are increasing at a faster pace. By the end of the fourth quarter, the spread between the FHA and conventional delinquency rates reached 841 bps, while the VA and conventional spread was 208 bps.” - Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA VP of Industry Analysis.
REALLY SLUGGISH RISE: Fannie Mae HPSI January 2025
The HPSI increased 0.3 points in January to 73.4, bouncing back slightly after falling last month for the first time since July.
Improvements in consumer optimism toward both homebuying and home-selling conditions, along with even greater expectations that home prices will rise over the next 12 months, drove the increase.
After a surge in mortgage rate optimism in the second half of last year, January saw a 13-percentage-point decline in the net share of consumers who believe mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months.
The share of consumers who expect rental prices will go up increased 8 percentage points from last month to 65%. Year over year, the HPSI is up 2.7 points.
TY Captain Obvious: Redfin Finds Two Incomes Are Comfier Than One
Single and divorced people are more likely than people who are married to make certain sacrifices, including skipping meals, to afford rent and mortgage payments.