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By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
It’s a desolate week in terms of what affects the markets and rates, and Bill Bodnar has some good context in his latest Master the Markets segment; but at the end of the day, it’s all about what’s happening in the Middle East. ServiceLink, KeyBank, and Cotality all came out with consumer surveys and it appears that the public is getting more savvy, but they still want humans to lean on when it comes to the home buying process.
Table of Contents
CHATTER
Half the Historical Average?!
IMBs Improve in 2025: MBA
Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported an average profit of $785 on each loan they originated in 2025, up from an average of $443 per loan in 2024.
“The average net production profit for IMBs in 2025 reached its highest level in four years at 21 basis points,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “While profits have improved slightly in recent years, they are still less than half the historical average going back to 2008. There was also wide variability between top and bottom performers due to differences in product mix, volume levels, geography and cost efficiencies, among other factors.
Incoming Truth Bomb
Reality in the House: Home Prices vs. Incomes (2026 Economic Report of the President)
From the report: America has been in the midst of a national housing affordability crunch that reached historic severity due to policies of the prior Administration. Because of skyrocketing house prices and mortgage rates, a typical homebuyer at the end of 2024 could expect to pay $2,400 in monthly principal and interest on a mortgage, representing over a $1,000 increase relative to what a typical buyer faced at the end of 2019, when interest rates were closer to 4% and median house prices were about $90,000 lower. This payment increase is even larger after accounting for the spillover effects of higher house prices on rising property taxes and homeowner insurance premiums.
The report details the administration’s proposals to “protect and rebuild the American Dream of homeownership.”
Disclosing AI?
AI Insights: Cotality Consumer Survey
U.S. homebuyer confidence has fallen from 83% to 72% year-on-year
Half of Gen Z see AI as key to navigating today’s market
44% of homebuyers would pay for a human expert to verify AI decisions
68% of buyers say clear AI labeling for property listings and mortgage recommendations is important or essential, and 37% say it should be mandatory — rising to 61% among Baby Boomers.
In the U.S., trust in AI to help find a home has fallen by 14 percentage points from 30% in 2025 to 16% in 2026.
Leveling the Field: AnnieMac Offers Cash2Keys to FHA Buyers
The company announced the expansion of its Cash2Keys Cash Offer platform to include FHA loan eligibility, broadening access to competitive cash offers for a larger number of buyers. This expansion enables more clients, including first-time buyers and those who may not qualify for conventional loans, to benefit from the power of a cash offer.
The company says: “This FHA expansion reflects AnnieMac's dedication to making homeownership more accessible to a broader audience, providing clients with valuable opportunities in an increasingly complex real estate market.”
Hurry Up: Community Home Lenders of America Asks FHFA to Keep Fast-tracking VantageScore
CHLA sent a letter to the agency and cited stats from its recent white paper which states that FICO has raised the cost of its score by 1567% in the last 3.5 years.
Portable Credit Reports: What could go wrong? Hang on… HW
In this consumer-controlled portable credit report model, borrowers would authorize the use of a single credit report during their mortgage search across different lenders. The concept mirrors tenant screening reports — a reusable, renter-obtained background check shared with multiple landlords, often within a 30-day period.
Mortgage industry proponents say the change would reduce the need for lenders to pull credit reports that ultimately fail to result in closed loan originations while also empowering customers. Credit reporting industry representatives, however, view the model as an open door for fraud and have showed skepticism from the start.
Veterinarians But Not Chiropractors: Newrez Offers Medical Professional Loan
From the company’s release: “Designed for doctors just starting out in their careers, this loan supports the financial realities of medical professionals: potential for high future income, the weight of educational expenses and a need for flexible mortgage options.The site lists eligible practitioners and FAQs.
NAR Ponies Up Again: Another $52M Settlement
Upstart competitors to NAR are sending emails offering more benefits for less dues and spinning scenarios of NAR dues rising even more.
MOVING & SHAKING
MBA presented its annual Burton C. Wood Legislative Service Award to Richard (Rich) Jordan, Chief Administrative Officer, Freedom Mortgage, at its 2026 National Advocacy Conference.
Mortgage Cadence appointed Joe Zeibert as chief revenue officer.
Debora Wilson joined the West Capital leadership team - NMP.
Invesco Mortgage Capital moved Kevin Collins to CEO role, David Lyle to President upon retirement of John Anzalone - NMP
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Mortgage Rates Continue to Decline: Freddie 4-16-26
Mortgage Applications Increased 1.8% From One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 4-10-26.
The Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for March 2026 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 11% from a year ago. Compared to February 2026, applications increased by 26%. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.
No Real Surprises: Optimal Blue March Market Highlights
Refinance share eases: Refinances accounted for 28% of total lock volume in March as purchase demand accelerated. Rate-and-term refinance volume declined 34% MoM but remained more than 66% higher YoY, while cash-out refinance volume increased 9% MoM and 21% YoY.
Purchase share expands: Purchase locks accounted for just over 71% of total volume in March, with purchase activity rising 38% MoM and 20% YoY as the market moved deeper into the spring selling season.
Stressed But Engaged: ServiceLink 2026 State of Homebuying Report
Findings are worth a look for industry pros; however, Dave Steinmetz, president, origination services gives a good summation: “Between the paperwork, negotiations, securing a good rate and figuring out what the price of homeownership will actually cost them, today’s homebuyers are telling us that they are overwhelmed. Many are being forced to compromise, stretching beyond their budgets yet still not getting everything they want in a home. Instead, they are craving ease, value, transparency and long-term reliability. Recognizing these needs can help lenders make meaningful shifts to streamline their processes to get them a competitive edge, meeting today’s buyers where they are.”
Consumer Trade-offs
Buyer Buzz Term: Reimagining vs. Retreating - KeyBank's 2026 Financial Mobility Pulse Poll
The big takeaway was that consumers are being proactive to combat financial concerns and insecurities. Findings from the poll:
Top financial concerns: Groceries 58%, housing 44%
Those making tradeoffs of spending less today for more secure tomorrow: Daily 33%, weekly 31%
The poll also found that the number of people who 1) switched to less expensive brands or services, 2) canceled or reduced subscriptions or memberships, and 3) took on side work or additional hours rose y-o-y from ‘25 to ’26.