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Warsh, Rinse, Repeat
By Jeff Walton & Kelly Guest
Fitting title for an edition released on Groundhog Day, but we refer to the fact that it's not the first stint at the Fed for the newly nominated Chair. The Mortgage Bankers Association statement on Kevin Warsh's nomination basically said, "We want to see what he says he'll do when the Senate grills him," and questions abound about Warsh's vision and plans for the central bank. Meanwhile, as various parts of the country are getting hammered by weather, a major industry event is underway in Florida. All the Independent Mortgage Bankers at Amelia Island can high five and celebrate the fact that the CHLA determined they were responsible for 84% of all single-family originations last year.
Table of Contents
CHATTER
MBA Statement on Warsh Fed Chair Nomination:
“MBA congratulates Kevin Warsh on his nomination to serve as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. His prior service on the Federal Reserve Board, where he developed a reputation as a prudent, thoughtful voice on monetary policy, paired with his private sector experience, will be invaluable as he leads the Federal Reserve in what has become an increasingly challenging and complicated mission. We look forward to learning more about his views during his Senate Banking Committee hearing.” - MBA's President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, CMB
MBA’s Chief Econ on the Fed: Mike Fratantoni
“MBA’s forecast has been for mortgage rates to remain in a relatively narrow trading range for the foreseeable future, likely remaining between 6 and 6.5% for 30-year conforming loans. The news from this meeting does not change our forecast for mortgage rates. We expect that this level of rates will help support a somewhat stronger spring housing market than last year, but not a breakout year.”
Most of the Pie
IMBs in the Majority: CHLA 2025 IMB Report
The Community Home Lenders of America says IMBs originated 84% of all single-family loans last year. Here are the breakdowns of IMB share:
FHA loans increased from 57% in 2010 to 90% in 2025.
VA mortgage loan origination is 95.5%, as of November 2024.
Ginnie Mae issuance soared from 12% in 2010 to 94.6% in 2025.
What did The Mortgage Collaborative Find?
TMC’s Pulse of the Network Survey: Lenders Prioritize Tech & Talent - NMP
The survey captures insights from TMC’s 38 member organizations, including independent mortgage banks and depository institutions operating across the U.S.
Technology implementation stands as lenders’ top strategic priority for 2025–2026. Respondents cited rising origination costs, operational inefficiencies, and borrower expectations as key drivers behind increased investment in APIs, automation, and digital closing tools. Lenders are seeking to modernize the loan lifecycle end-to-end, with a clear focus on scalability and cost containment.
Beyond technology, workforce strategy is gaining prominence, with more than 75% of respondents having identified leadership development and employee engagement as key initiatives, underscoring the importance of talent optimization, succession planning, and performance measurement in a constrained volume environment.
While compliance ranked lower among overall priorities, risk management concerns persist, as more than 50% of respondents cited fraud prevention and cybersecurity as their most significant challenges, reflecting heightened vigilance as digital adoption expands.
Letter of the Law: HUD Sends Letter to Public Housing Authorities & HUD-Funded Properties
The letter reinforces an executive order and states in part, “eligibility for federal housing assistance is limited to U.S. citizens and noncitizens who have eligible immigration status. Section 214 of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1980 prohibits HUD from making financial assistance available to ineligible noncitizens.”
The letter goes on to detail additional expectations: “To ensure that ineligible individuals are not assisted, Public Housing Agencies (PHAs) are required to document and verify the citizenship or eligible immigration status of individuals prior to admission to the Public Housing or Housing Choice Voucher program, and to prorate assistance for any households where ineligible noncitizens reside.1 PHAs also must notify the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) of anyone the PHA knows is not lawfully present in the United States.”
Targets on Their Backs
Rocket in Hot Seat: Accused of Steering in Class Action Suit
Rocket joins Zillow in being accused of pushing borrowers into more expensive loans when less-costly options were available.
Fat Freddie: Freddie Mac Portfolio Hits $3.67T
More State/Fed Battles, This Time Over Interest on Escrow Accounts - NMP
The Office of Comptroller of the Currency made a rule targeting state laws regarding interest on escrow accounts.
The Conference of State Bank Supervisors (CSBS) and the American Association of Residential Mortgage Regulators (AARMR) argued that the OCC’s proposal to preempt state interest-on-escrow laws exceeds the agency’s statutory authority, disregards established legal precedent, and would primarily benefit national banks at the expense of consumers.
MOVING & SHAKING
Atlantic Bay Mortgage named Robyn Zacharias CMO.
Cardinal Financial launched non-delegated correspondent program – HW
NEXA partners with Brad Lea in what looks like coaching and cheerleading plan: NMP
Go Companies appointed Jay Promisco as CEO.
Logan Finance welcomed Jeffrey Massotti as SVP of TPO for its East/Central region.
Brokers First Funding brought Steven Winokur on as its new CMO.
MARKET/INDUSTRY
Last week's Fed meeting wasn't the major headline according to Bill Bodnar in his latest Master the Markets segment, it's the nomination of a Powell replacement. We're all wondering about Warsh, and this is jobs week.
Mortgage Rates Remain Lower and Steady: Freddie 1-29-26
Mortgage Applications Decreased 8.5% from One Week Earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 1-23-26.
Of Note: “Housing affordability conditions improved for the seventh consecutive month to close out 2025 because of lower mortgage rates and steady household earnings growth.” - Edward Seiler, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Housing Economics
Rapid Repeals: Redfin Says Buyers Backing Out at Record Rate
Over 40,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements were canceled in December, equal to 16.3% of homes that went under contract that month—the highest December percentage in records dating back to 2017
Cancellations were highest in Atlanta (22.5%), Jacksonville (20.6%) and San Antonio (20.6%)
Cancellations were lowest in Nassau County (3.8%), San Francisco (4.2%) and San Jose (8.9%)
10% is Better than Nothing
Buying Boost: House-Buying Power Up 10% YoY - First American
Income gains and lower mortgage rates boosted house-buying power by roughly $36,600 year-over-year in November.
November was 9th consecutive month of improvement.
Nominal price growth has slowed to near-zero, and 47 of 50 major metros posted affordability improvements.
Affordability is still more than 63 percent below its pre-pandemic, five-year average, the improvement trend has become increasingly clear—and increasingly durable.
Inventory is the decisive wild card — if inventory levels don’t deteriorate dramatically, house price growth will remain in check.
Prices Up, Margins Down: ATTOM Data’s 2025 Year-End Home Sales Report
Key Findings:
3.9M homes sold.
Home prices hit record highs, with the national median up 2.6% year-over-year and nearly 40% higher than 2020.
Seller returns continued to compress, as typical profit margins fell to 49%, down from 55% in 2024.
Institutional investor activity remained steady for the second year, accounting for 6.6% of all home purchases nationwide.
Market conditions remained challenging for buyers, with longer ownership tenures and a near-record 39.1% share of all-cash sales.
Faltering FHA Borrowers
Eyebrows Up: Experian Analysis Shows Increase in Late Stage Delinquencies
The recent rise in late-stage mortgage delinquencies is not merely a short-term anomaly—it is an early warning signal.
Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) have continued to show relative stability, with both early- and late-stage delinquency rates holding steady through mid-2025. This resilience likely results in stronger borrower equity positions, more conservative underwriting, and greater borrower flexibility in managing revolving credit obligations.
Quote from Donna Schmidt, President & CEO of DLS Servicing in NMP article: “Data shows that the majority of FHA borrowers stumble and request loss mitigation assistance between origination and year four. Much of this is attributed to origination policy that allows up to 50% front end debt ratios — meaning any bump in the budget can lead to mortgage default. Additionally, 85% of FHA borrowers are first time homeowners — they are financially inexperienced and are still learning how to navigate unexpected financial challenges. This requires servicers to be aggressive with early default collections and to provide transparent and clear explanations of loss mitigation options. Staying in a home that is unaffordable does no one any good. But clear and complete information will be critical to keeping losses down in the coming months.”
AARP Suing HECM Providers – NMN
A new class action lawsuit claims Carrington Mortgage Services, Celink and Finance of America Reverse have squeezed thousands of dollars of illegal fees out of tens of thousands of older homeowners.
Representatives for reverse mortgage borrowers say the homeowners were overcharged for a variety of fees and suffered inflated interest and mortgage insurance premium costs. Attorneys for AARP were among the counsel who filed the lawsuit earlier this month in a New York federal court. The claim is similar to other longstanding litigation against reverse mortgage players.
The complaint paints much of the blame on subservicer Celink, and seeks unspecified relief in the reimbursement or credit reversal of the fees the companies piled on borrowers. Counsel for plaintiffs said they also plan to add Longbridge Financial to the complaint.
Holy HOA: Realtor.com Analysis Says More Homes, More Money
The share of homes for sale in the US that are subject to a non-zero HOA fee reached 43.6%, up from 41.9% last year and 34.3% in 2019. The median HOA fee was $135, up from $125 last year and $108 in 2019.
Condos and townhomes are more likely to have HOAs than single family homes and new construction is more likely to have HOAs than existing homes, but the share of listings with HOAs is rising in all these categories in recent years.
The costliest HOAs in the country relative to home prices are in Florida.