Where were you when...

Watercooler, happy hour, and party chats often include the question, "Where were you when (insert major event here)?" We just passed the one year anniversary of one of the assassination attempts on Donald Trump; but the housing industry had a flashback of its own: Mortgage apps for the week ending July 4 reached the highest since February 2023 - before rates made the harrowing climb to 7.79% in October of that same year. That said, Freddie Mac shows rates were 6.96% in the week ending July 13, 2023…higher than they are today.

Hope on the horizon? We'll see how bad the tariff terrors get since deadlines were extended for countries to make deals, and what happens with all the drama surrounding the Fed.  

CHATTER

Credit Card Points for Rent – Now Mortgages: UWM In on $250M Funding for Bilt

The payments and commerce platform that turns housing and neighborhood spending into rewards was founded in 2021.

Bilt is introducing Bilt Card 2.0 in February 2026: It will provide points on both rent and mortgage payments, broader perks, and a seamless transition from the current Wells Fargo-backed cards.

Its Bilt Alliance, created with top property owners and managers, includes 4.5M homes. Members can earn and redeem points for rent, down payments, student loans, travel, fitness, and more. The company also launched Bilt Homes, a platform that lets tenants input their rent payment and credit score and see a list of homes they can afford. It factors in interest rates, taxes, personal income and credit profile to determine the mortgage a customer could obtain.

Recruiter Rant: NMN Article on “Toxic Recruiting”

Synergy One Lending's CEO Steve Majerus is taking a stand against "toxic" recruiting culture.

In a company-wide address, Majerus bemoaned "unscrupulous" recruiters who have recently conjured up "outrageous" claims in an effort to recruit away Synergy's top talent.

In the video recording last week, the Synergy CEO reassured his staff that none of the chatter related to the firm struggling financially is true and that action will be taken against those spreading lies if they do not stop.

Jobs Report Commentary from MBA’s Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni: “Potential homebuyers are likely to remain cautious unless, and until, the job market begins to improve again, or mortgage rates drop sufficiently to spur more activity.”

The MBA thanked the Trump administration for the passage of the so-called Big Beautiful Bill that “preserves or strengthens – and makes permanent – numerous pro-housing and pro-economic growth tax provisions [ ].”

MBA congratulated Jonathan Gould on his confirmation as the Comptroller of the Currency.

MISMO updated its fee naming guide and is seeking public comment for changes to its previously published Consumer-Facing Charge and Fee Naming Guide until 8-7.

MARKET/INDUSTRY 

Mortgage Rates Tick Up: Freddie 7-10-25

After declining for five consecutive weeks, the 30-year FRM moved slightly higher following a stronger than expected jobs report. Despite ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market, home purchase and refinance applications are responding to the downward trajectory in rates, increasing by 25% and 56%, respectively, compared to the same time last year.

Mortgage applications increased 9.4%  from one week earlier: MBA Weekly Survey for the week ending 7-4-25. 

The Fed minutes are out and Bill Bodnar says there's no chance of a Fed rate cut in July, but there is a 65% chance for September in his latest Master the Markets segment.

Property Taxes & Insurance Wrecking American Dream: Cotality

• Rising property taxes and insurance payments are eroding the promise of long-term stability in homeownership.

• Serious mortgage delinquencies are growing and pressuring states that are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters.

• People who are less likely to have a conventional mortgage are more likely to feel the squeeze and fall behind on payments.

Smorgasbord of Stats: ICE's July Mortgage Monitor

• Purchase applications have now increased YoY for 21 consecutive weeks, with increases ranging from +13% to +21% through June 25

• Three of the five strongest readings over the past 52 weeks on a seasonally adjusted basis have come within the past 2 months

• In that same period, more borrowers took out Adjustable Rate Mortgages as interest rates ticked higher, with the ARM share of both purchase and refinance lending hitting their highest levels since late 2023

• ARM loans remain a relatively small portion of overall lending activity, accounting for just over 5% of purchase loans and 8.6% of refis

• 2-1 buydowns, which provide a 2% rate reduction in the first year and a 1% rate reduction in the second year, continue to be the most popular option, accounting for 60% of temp buydowns tracked through ICE’s Origination Data

• 1-0 buydowns, which provide a 1% rate reduction until expiring after 12 months, are the second most popular, accounting for another 30% of temporary rate buydowns

• The bulk of temp buydowns are on fixed rate loans, which means that between the uptick in ARM lending and temp buydown activity, more than 8% of borrowers early this year are leaning on one of those two affordability features when buying their home

Elevated interest rates continue to put pressure on debt-to-income ratios with the average back-end DTI hitting 40% in May, only slightly below the 40.5% high reached back in late 2023:

• The average front-end DTI was just over 29% in May, with 11% of back-end DTI coming from non-mortgage related expenses

• Credit scores remained elevated with an average score of 738 among May purchase loans, less than two points off the high reached in mid-2024

• Loan amounts for purchase loans topped an average of more than $375,000 in May, and the average loan-to-value ratio topped 85%, so affordability is very stretched

While home prices are beginning to pull back in a growing number of markets, negative equity rates are relatively low:

• Only about 1% of mortgage holders are underwater, representing a little over a half a million homeowners (538K) nationwide, up from 339K (0.6%) at the same time last year

• Another 4.6% (2.5M) have ‘limited’ equity (<10%) meaning they would fall underwater if local home prices declined by 10%

• That’s up from 3.7% (2.0M) at the same time last year, marking the highest volume since early 2020 before the sharp run-up in home prices

• While the number of homeowners underwater on their mortgage is still relatively low, it’s beginning to grow in some markets, especially among mortgage holders who purchased more recently

• Lower down payment products, such as FHA and VA loans, are the most likely to be underwater, with nearly 5% of VA mortgages and 2.6% of FHA loans currently in a negative equity position

Get InGeniusly Speaking delivered to your inbox every Monday!

Forward InGeniusly Speaking to a friend or colleague!